***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 6.9 7.2 9.7 2.7 78.6 78.1 3.3 4.3 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 6.6 6.7 9.0 2.3 76.9 75.8 2.6 4.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 8.4 8.5 9.6 2.3 77.9 76.1 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 4.5 5.9 8.2 3.6 89.4 86.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 5.8 6.4 8.6 3.0 81.1 79.8 1.9 2.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 5.4 6.6 6.3 3.2 88.1 85.6 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 6.4 6.6 9.1 2.3 77.7 75.9 3.1 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 2.2 2.6 6.0 2.6 79.6 78.9 -1.7 -0.4 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 7.3 7.8 8.3 2.9 83.8 82.2 3.1 4.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 6.9 7.3 6.7 2.7 80.6 79.5 2.5 3.7 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 6.1 7.5 8.0 3.0 83.4 82.0 2.2 3.4 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 5.4 6.0 6.9 2.6 78.9 78.7 1.7 2.0 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 5.8 7.2 6.8 2.7 84.8 81.3 1.6 2.5 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 7.0 7.3 7.6 2.3 78.6 76.9 3.6 5.4 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 7.0 8.9 10.2 4.2 97.1 94.3 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 6.7 8.0 7.6 3.1 85.0 82.8 3.1 3.9 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 6.6 6.5 8.7 2.2 76.4 74.7 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 5.2 5.9 6.0 2.3 75.6 75.3 1.2 2.6 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 6.6 6.8 9.0 2.2 76.9 75.7 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 1.3 2.1 4.7 2.1 73.6 72.8 -1.0 -0.4 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 6.9 7.8 9.2 2.7 80.8 79.4 3.1 4.1 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 5.9 5.9 8.8 2.0 75.2 74.0 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 6.3 6.6 8.9 2.2 78.0 75.7 2.3 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 6.3 6.6 7.7 2.4 78.1 77.0 2.8 3.7 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 6.8 7.7 9.6 3.1 81.6 80.6 3.0 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 5.8 6.4 6.2 2.3 77.6 76.4 2.5 3.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 7.5 7.6 9.6 2.8 79.1 78.6 2.6 4.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 5.6 6.4 8.7 3.8 91.2 88.7 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 5.0 5.3 5.4 2.4 77.0 76.5 2.0 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 6.9 7.2 9.3 2.3 77.1 76.0 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------