***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 29.5 41.3 37.2 103.9 58.9 52.5 29.1 37.1 48.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.6 42.3 36.6 100.0 56.9 50.0 29.7 38.3 46.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 51.5 54.3 38.5 104.6 59.9 52.6 34.6 45.3 57.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 56.1 57.2 47.7 113.2 61.7 55.5 40.3 51.1 58.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 53.5 52.6 43.1 102.7 59.4 51.8 31.1 48.8 53.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 43.9 44.5 47.0 105.3 57.8 52.4 31.7 36.5 54.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 44.8 42.0 35.5 96.7 54.0 49.2 29.5 39.1 43.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 69.1 69.0 46.5 103.8 58.2 52.3 48.3 58.4 91.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 46.5 48.0 42.6 103.7 59.3 52.2 29.8 41.3 52.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 51.7 50.8 45.5 102.6 59.0 51.6 31.9 44.7 55.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 51.2 46.1 39.7 103.6 59.7 51.8 28.7 41.2 51.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 54.8 53.3 42.2 108.4 61.1 54.0 29.0 45.3 57.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 56.7 57.9 45.3 108.0 60.2 53.4 35.9 47.8 65.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 51.4 68.8 46.8 100.9 55.4 50.2 52.8 68.4 73.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 59.3 54.6 55.8 126.8 69.6 61.2 31.2 35.4 52.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 46.4 46.2 42.2 108.0 61.8 53.5 34.6 42.0 47.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 27.9 41.0 36.3 98.2 53.2 49.2 28.2 39.7 45.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 56.3 54.1 49.8 100.9 57.2 50.7 42.4 51.6 63.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 30.7 47.1 37.4 101.5 58.7 50.4 32.2 39.2 62.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 65.1 57.7 58.6 94.2 51.3 47.8 47.8 56.9 78.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 47.3 47.0 40.6 106.2 60.6 53.2 37.1 43.5 48.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 34.5 50.5 38.7 99.6 55.1 48.9 32.3 48.4 59.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 52.6 53.5 39.1 101.4 59.4 50.3 34.0 48.6 55.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 58.3 56.7 45.3 102.7 58.2 51.4 35.8 50.9 58.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 43.0 44.9 42.8 99.6 57.0 50.5 25.5 37.5 53.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 51.6 53.9 48.4 114.6 60.8 57.1 33.3 44.5 64.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 30.0 43.0 39.5 98.3 54.9 49.8 30.3 40.3 45.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 44.8 53.6 50.8 119.7 65.9 58.0 29.4 37.9 53.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 85.6 80.9 53.1 98.2 54.5 49.6 62.3 78.5 84.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 26.7 37.3 36.6 100.9 58.0 50.6 29.1 33.2 48.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------