***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.2 16.1 11.6 138.4 72.8 57.6 6.4 11.0 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 17.6 11.5 123.0 67.3 55.9 4.4 8.8 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.6 17.6 11.6 132.1 73.2 56.1 7.6 9.3 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.6 34.7 14.2 150.1 77.8 59.1 5.7 14.6 23.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.6 19.9 12.7 138.9 73.9 57.0 6.2 12.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.5 26.6 12.7 129.0 67.9 54.8 3.8 13.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.4 14.0 11.3 121.4 65.6 56.0 4.7 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.6 24.6 12.2 118.3 68.4 54.8 8.8 12.8 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.5 18.6 12.6 133.1 73.6 56.2 7.0 10.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 7.0 19.9 12.8 126.0 70.7 55.8 5.5 15.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.6 31.2 11.4 134.0 71.3 56.1 6.2 12.6 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.7 28.9 11.0 125.3 71.2 55.5 1.5 15.6 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.0 30.4 12.0 127.2 68.7 55.6 3.0 19.9 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.8 26.8 13.3 120.6 71.6 54.8 8.1 17.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.5 30.3 15.5 158.2 76.1 59.5 2.3 11.1 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.9 30.7 11.5 134.1 70.4 56.1 4.1 12.6 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.3 16.9 11.8 126.4 67.5 56.9 6.7 10.4 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 5.5 23.6 14.1 123.4 70.7 55.8 6.9 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.3 18.5 11.5 124.5 69.0 55.6 6.0 9.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 26.8 16.5 110.1 63.6 54.5 6.1 9.6 28.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.9 17.9 12.2 137.2 73.0 56.9 6.1 9.5 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.4 18.0 12.2 128.4 67.3 56.4 7.9 13.4 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.4 17.9 11.6 125.0 70.7 55.5 5.3 11.6 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.4 22.1 13.0 125.7 74.3 56.0 7.0 12.5 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 17.2 19.0 14.1 143.4 74.3 59.0 4.7 9.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.9 28.1 12.8 132.8 71.2 56.0 4.8 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.8 19.9 12.9 137.9 72.8 58.0 4.1 9.8 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.5 27.0 14.0 149.0 75.3 58.1 2.6 11.6 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.7 42.0 15.2 119.4 68.6 55.3 7.9 16.0 36.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.0 16.4 11.4 125.1 68.1 55.7 4.3 8.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------