***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.3 14.6 11.1 126.7 73.3 55.7 3.4 6.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 12.8 11.2 129.1 68.1 55.4 3.5 8.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.0 18.9 11.5 133.7 74.5 57.0 3.6 8.4 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 16.1 14.3 131.7 71.7 55.7 4.9 8.1 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.5 19.2 12.7 128.8 71.0 54.7 3.8 9.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.6 20.6 16.0 148.4 75.5 59.4 2.6 7.3 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.5 13.9 10.7 123.6 65.7 54.6 3.7 8.1 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.2 20.5 14.2 133.1 72.5 55.7 6.7 12.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.5 16.0 12.7 130.4 71.9 55.6 2.3 9.8 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.6 17.9 13.7 131.5 70.7 55.4 1.3 7.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.7 18.9 12.3 135.5 72.7 55.0 0.8 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.4 18.8 13.2 144.8 75.8 57.3 3.8 7.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.0 22.2 14.5 149.7 75.7 59.1 3.5 7.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.4 23.0 13.8 133.0 72.5 57.5 4.7 9.7 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.4 19.7 17.3 147.1 76.2 59.0 1.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.9 17.7 13.1 143.8 74.6 57.5 2.3 7.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 18.3 10.7 120.8 65.2 54.5 3.1 5.7 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.6 14.4 126.7 69.3 55.4 3.9 6.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 15.0 11.5 133.9 71.2 56.2 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 17.9 16.9 116.4 69.6 54.7 2.9 10.0 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.2 16.6 11.9 130.8 74.2 57.0 3.4 9.2 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.8 15.8 11.5 123.9 65.8 54.0 2.3 7.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.3 16.1 11.9 136.7 73.3 57.4 4.8 7.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.4 17.0 13.1 131.6 70.6 56.7 2.8 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.3 14.8 12.8 115.4 70.0 53.4 2.9 4.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.3 18.9 14.2 152.6 77.8 60.3 3.6 10.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.6 11.6 12.0 118.4 70.3 53.6 3.0 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.2 18.5 15.7 145.3 75.0 57.8 1.6 5.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.8 17.9 15.1 122.7 70.4 55.6 7.8 13.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.0 14.4 11.2 130.7 70.4 55.8 3.9 8.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------