***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.9 11.5 10.5 100.9 65.5 52.1 5.4 8.4 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.7 12.4 9.9 100.2 66.0 51.1 3.6 6.2 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.2 11.6 10.9 100.0 64.8 51.5 4.7 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 16.0 13.5 104.7 67.5 51.5 1.3 6.1 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.5 13.1 12.6 99.5 65.9 51.1 1.5 5.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.3 9.0 14.1 99.2 62.1 51.5 1.0 5.2 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.9 9.6 9.8 99.2 66.5 51.5 1.9 6.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.9 24.7 14.2 103.8 61.6 53.3 3.2 12.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.9 10.1 12.7 99.9 65.8 51.7 1.4 5.3 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.0 13.7 100.7 63.4 52.6 2.7 8.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.0 11.7 99.0 61.6 49.9 0.9 9.5 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.6 12.9 107.6 61.6 53.0 3.6 9.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.7 10.6 13.5 103.3 61.8 52.4 2.6 6.1 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.3 20.3 13.3 95.6 61.9 51.9 8.1 14.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.3 13.8 16.2 120.6 72.2 55.9 0.7 2.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.4 13.7 12.5 103.2 62.4 52.2 0.3 5.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.3 9.6 101.2 64.2 51.2 1.4 7.8 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.2 16.5 15.0 98.4 62.3 52.3 4.7 10.3 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.8 13.9 10.1 98.8 64.9 50.7 3.6 8.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.3 17.6 93.6 58.1 51.0 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.8 8.4 11.6 100.0 65.2 52.0 1.9 5.6 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.6 13.0 10.1 99.9 64.0 50.0 2.3 10.0 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.6 17.5 10.7 95.6 61.9 50.6 4.1 8.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.5 13.3 97.5 62.4 52.1 4.0 8.5 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.7 11.4 92.6 62.1 48.9 2.7 5.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.4 13.7 111.6 64.7 55.0 1.8 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.9 9.7 10.7 93.3 61.4 49.4 3.8 8.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.1 13.0 15.1 113.9 69.6 54.3 0.7 2.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 21.0 19.5 16.0 96.6 60.6 52.2 6.9 17.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.7 12.7 10.2 100.1 65.9 50.9 2.9 6.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------