***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.5 2.2 4.0 48.5 47.9 36.5 1.2 3.4 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 0.5 1.8 4.0 45.9 45.9 31.7 0.7 2.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.1 3.7 4.5 52.9 45.4 38.2 1.4 5.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.8 5.8 64.7 54.8 44.4 1.0 6.5 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.0 4.6 5.0 49.2 48.0 36.4 1.5 4.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.1 2.7 4.2 42.7 47.0 36.3 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 0.9 2.6 3.7 41.5 43.4 29.5 1.3 3.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.5 5.7 5.9 58.3 48.6 40.1 1.0 6.3 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.1 5.1 4.7 50.8 46.6 36.7 1.6 5.2 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.2 5.3 52.4 45.6 36.8 3.3 8.1 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.3 4.3 48.4 48.3 34.7 0.8 6.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.2 5.1 56.6 52.6 41.3 0.8 3.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.0 4.1 5.4 54.6 52.2 43.2 0.9 3.8 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.0 6.0 6.4 57.7 45.2 39.3 2.2 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.6 2.4 6.7 75.0 56.9 45.8 1.0 2.0 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 3.9 3.7 5.0 54.2 53.2 41.9 0.5 2.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 1.2 3.8 4.2 45.5 49.9 31.2 1.5 3.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.2 6.3 55.5 47.5 37.4 1.5 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 0.9 3.7 4.3 48.9 46.9 33.6 1.5 3.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.9 7.6 54.6 44.6 35.9 1.0 4.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.2 4.9 56.5 48.3 41.1 1.0 6.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.3 3.3 5.0 49.6 47.5 32.5 1.6 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 1.0 2.8 4.9 51.9 45.9 34.0 1.3 3.4 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.2 6.2 5.9 58.2 47.7 40.4 2.4 6.8 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.4 2.3 4.6 46.9 45.0 38.4 1.4 2.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 3.6 3.6 7.6 69.3 57.6 52.0 0.7 2.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 0.9 1.5 3.9 42.4 44.0 33.6 0.7 2.3 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.5 6.0 67.3 56.4 44.9 1.3 5.0 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 8.8 6.7 54.3 44.6 36.0 5.3 10.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 0.9 2.2 3.9 45.5 42.9 31.5 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------