***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.5 11.3 -0.6 35.1 39.9 11.0 11.9 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.4 11.4 -0.5 37.7 41.7 10.3 11.0 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 11.0 11.2 11.4 -0.6 36.5 40.6 11.1 11.8 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.7 4.7 8.3 -1.2 24.7 32.4 5.2 6.3 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 10.8 11.2 9.4 -0.8 29.7 36.7 11.4 12.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 10.8 10.7 8.7 -0.6 33.9 40.3 10.6 12.5 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.4 11.3 -0.5 37.1 41.5 10.2 11.2 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.1 9.1 -0.3 39.5 44.7 4.2 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 11.4 11.6 10.4 -0.6 32.7 38.9 11.7 12.4 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.1 9.8 -0.4 37.9 42.5 11.0 11.7 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 10.9 11.4 9.5 -0.7 31.4 38.5 11.4 12.3 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.2 9.5 -0.5 36.1 42.1 11.0 12.2 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.3 11.6 9.4 -0.4 36.5 41.7 11.4 12.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.0 11.1 -0.3 42.3 44.7 11.6 12.0 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 9.8 9.9 8.8 -1.2 24.4 31.5 10.1 11.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 11.6 12.0 9.2 -0.7 31.4 38.1 12.1 13.2 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.0 11.0 -0.6 36.8 41.0 10.0 10.2 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 10.8 9.9 -0.1 46.6 47.0 9.9 11.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.9 11.5 -0.5 38.8 42.3 10.7 11.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.6 8.5 0.2 53.8 51.9 8.4 10.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 11.1 11.1 10.9 -0.7 31.4 38.3 11.2 12.1 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.7 11.1 -0.6 36.7 41.7 10.6 11.0 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.2 11.7 -0.4 41.9 43.6 11.1 11.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.0 10.9 -0.3 43.8 44.5 11.5 12.4 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 10.3 10.2 9.8 -0.7 31.7 37.8 10.3 11.3 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.2 9.3 -0.2 40.9 44.9 10.8 12.7 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.1 10.8 -0.5 36.5 40.8 11.0 12.1 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 10.0 10.1 8.6 -1.3 25.0 31.8 10.5 11.0 13.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.4 9.5 0.1 51.7 50.9 7.7 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.4 11.5 -0.5 37.8 41.5 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------