***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.2 7.9 9.0 -0.3 45.2 48.9 6.6 8.8 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.0 8.9 -0.3 44.8 49.1 6.9 8.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.0 9.2 -0.2 47.7 49.8 7.2 9.0 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 4.8 2.7 6.5 -0.4 45.2 46.6 1.6 3.2 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.8 8.3 7.3 -0.2 46.7 48.7 7.6 8.4 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.2 7.3 6.5 -0.3 44.7 48.2 7.2 8.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.7 8.7 -0.4 42.5 48.5 6.2 8.1 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -0.1 2.0 6.9 0.0 49.4 51.2 0.6 2.0 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.1 9.1 8.1 -0.1 45.5 49.7 8.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.4 8.6 7.5 -0.1 47.4 50.6 6.9 9.0 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.0 9.3 7.3 -0.1 50.2 49.8 7.1 9.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.8 9.7 7.2 -0.1 49.7 50.4 7.7 9.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.4 8.2 6.9 -0.2 46.0 48.6 7.6 8.8 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.8 8.6 0.0 49.6 51.2 8.1 9.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 6.5 8.6 6.6 -0.5 45.2 45.5 6.5 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.1 6.9 -0.3 47.4 48.5 8.1 9.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.2 7.7 8.5 -0.5 43.6 47.8 6.7 8.1 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 7.4 7.5 0.0 48.1 51.0 6.3 7.6 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.7 9.1 -0.2 46.2 49.8 7.0 8.8 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.3 5.9 5.9 0.0 47.5 50.4 3.1 6.5 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.7 8.8 8.6 -0.2 46.7 49.4 7.8 9.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.6 8.6 -0.3 45.2 48.6 7.0 8.7 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.9 9.3 -0.1 47.9 50.9 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.3 9.4 8.6 0.0 48.8 51.2 8.3 9.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.5 7.8 7.5 -0.3 45.9 48.4 6.8 8.2 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.1 9.1 6.9 -0.1 45.2 49.6 6.7 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.5 8.4 -0.3 45.9 48.9 7.2 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.0 8.3 6.6 -0.5 44.7 46.1 7.1 9.3 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.9 7.0 0.0 47.8 50.7 3.3 6.1 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.0 9.1 -0.2 45.5 49.3 6.4 8.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------