***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 11.1 10.3 11.4 -1.1 32.1 38.5 10.4 13.0 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 10.9 11.3 11.5 -1.1 33.2 38.9 11.2 12.6 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.3 11.4 -1.2 32.6 38.5 11.4 13.3 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.2 3.3 8.6 -1.8 25.4 34.3 4.6 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.3 10.6 9.3 -1.5 29.0 37.1 11.1 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 10.6 11.8 8.7 -1.2 32.3 39.8 11.9 12.8 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 10.7 10.6 11.4 -1.0 33.8 39.1 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.8 4.6 9.1 -0.8 37.1 42.1 4.0 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 11.9 11.3 10.2 -1.2 33.4 38.6 11.3 14.0 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.7 11.3 9.6 -1.0 35.9 40.9 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 11.3 11.5 9.4 -1.2 31.4 38.6 11.8 13.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.1 11.3 9.6 -0.9 34.3 41.0 11.3 13.4 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 11.4 11.9 9.4 -0.9 33.6 41.2 11.7 13.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.0 10.8 -0.9 35.6 42.2 11.6 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 10.2 10.3 8.6 -1.9 22.8 32.5 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 11.5 11.8 9.2 -1.3 30.7 38.4 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 10.7 10.6 11.2 -1.1 33.5 39.0 10.5 12.4 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.6 10.8 9.8 -0.6 38.0 44.1 10.1 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.9 11.0 11.6 -1.1 33.3 39.2 11.0 12.9 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 11.0 10.2 8.5 -0.2 45.0 47.7 9.3 10.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 11.7 11.0 10.7 -1.3 32.0 38.0 11.1 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.5 11.2 -1.1 34.1 39.4 11.4 12.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.4 11.6 -1.0 35.1 40.2 11.2 12.9 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.6 11.9 10.7 -0.9 35.3 41.7 11.7 13.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 10.3 10.5 9.7 -1.3 31.1 37.5 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.7 9.5 -0.6 38.8 42.9 12.3 13.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.1 10.8 -1.1 33.0 39.0 11.1 13.1 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 10.5 10.9 8.7 -1.9 24.4 33.6 11.4 12.2 13.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 10.2 9.4 9.5 -0.3 42.5 46.8 8.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.0 10.8 11.6 -1.1 33.3 38.8 10.7 12.7 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------