***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 15.9 13.7 14.1 -0.9 40.7 41.4 12.9 15.5 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 15.3 14.1 14.4 -0.7 41.9 44.0 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 15.9 14.2 14.4 -0.9 41.0 42.1 13.8 15.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 4.8 5.6 10.0 -2.3 25.2 26.6 7.2 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.3 13.8 12.2 -1.5 35.9 35.8 13.6 15.7 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 15.8 14.1 11.3 -1.1 40.0 40.2 13.1 15.2 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 14.8 14.0 14.4 -0.6 44.0 45.3 13.0 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 8.1 7.0 12.3 -0.4 45.2 46.5 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 16.5 13.6 13.5 -1.0 39.4 39.9 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 16.3 14.1 13.0 -0.6 43.3 44.2 13.1 15.9 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 16.7 13.8 12.4 -1.3 37.5 37.7 13.6 16.1 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 15.9 14.6 12.3 -0.9 41.6 41.9 12.9 15.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 15.6 14.8 12.8 -0.8 42.2 42.5 13.2 15.1 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.5 15.7 14.5 -0.3 49.1 49.3 13.7 16.0 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 11.3 12.3 11.6 -2.1 25.8 25.8 13.2 15.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.9 15.1 12.2 -1.3 38.5 37.7 14.4 16.3 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 13.9 13.1 14.1 -0.7 43.4 45.0 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 15.3 14.8 13.3 0.1 49.4 51.5 11.8 14.9 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 15.8 14.5 14.6 -0.7 43.2 44.5 12.7 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 13.0 13.2 12.3 0.8 55.5 56.9 9.8 12.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.3 13.8 13.9 -1.1 38.7 39.0 13.5 15.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 15.3 14.7 14.2 -0.6 43.5 45.1 13.3 15.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 15.9 15.0 14.7 -0.5 47.3 46.4 13.0 15.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 16.4 15.3 14.3 -0.3 48.2 48.3 13.7 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.3 13.5 12.7 -1.2 37.3 37.1 13.2 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 96 4 100 16.1 15.3 12.2 -0.4 45.8 45.6 13.5 16.1 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 15.9 14.5 13.8 -0.7 43.2 42.8 13.9 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 11.2 12.0 10.8 -2.4 26.0 26.3 13.5 15.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 12.1 12.4 13.3 0.7 56.4 56.9 9.2 11.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 15.3 14.0 14.5 -0.7 42.4 43.8 13.1 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------