***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.3 5.3 0.0 48.2 49.1 2.5 3.3 4.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 3.1 2.4 5.0 0.1 47.8 48.9 1.7 2.4 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.5 5.2 0.2 53.2 51.3 3.9 4.4 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -0.1 -0.6 2.6 0.2 50.9 51.3 -1.1 -0.6 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.1 2.7 0.1 48.1 50.0 1.4 2.2 3.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.0 1.2 0.3 51.2 52.7 0.9 2.0 2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.1 4.8 -0.2 42.7 45.8 1.8 2.6 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.4 -1.6 1.8 0.4 54.2 55.0 -2.8 -1.7 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 3.4 2.7 3.3 0.0 45.7 48.9 2.3 2.9 4.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.6 2.4 0.3 52.4 52.9 2.0 2.5 3.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 2.7 2.4 2.6 0.3 50.1 52.7 1.5 2.4 3.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 2.0 1.8 2.3 0.3 51.4 53.2 0.6 1.7 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.1 1.8 0.2 50.0 51.4 1.4 2.1 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.6 3.7 0.3 55.3 52.7 2.4 3.3 4.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.0 3.4 0.2 51.3 52.2 2.3 2.9 3.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.1 2.1 0.3 50.5 52.3 2.4 3.1 4.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.4 4.6 -0.1 42.7 46.8 1.9 2.5 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.7 2.0 0.3 54.5 53.0 0.6 1.5 2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.6 5.1 0.2 51.3 51.3 2.0 2.6 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -0.8 -1.0 0.7 0.4 55.8 54.2 -1.9 -1.1 0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.6 4.5 0.0 48.4 49.5 1.9 2.6 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.0 4.8 0.0 45.2 48.3 1.3 2.1 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 2.9 2.7 5.0 0.3 53.8 53.7 2.1 2.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 2.7 2.4 3.5 0.3 55.0 53.0 1.7 2.3 2.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.1 2.9 4.1 0.2 52.8 51.9 2.3 2.8 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.4 2.0 0.3 50.3 51.9 1.8 2.4 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 3.4 2.9 4.5 0.0 48.7 49.1 2.2 2.9 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 1.8 1.5 2.7 0.2 50.0 50.9 0.7 1.5 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 1.1 1.4 1.6 0.4 55.2 54.3 -0.2 0.7 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.4 2.6 5.2 0.1 49.1 49.0 2.1 2.7 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------