***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.8 3.8 7.0 -0.2 43.0 45.2 3.3 4.3 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.0 4.1 6.7 -0.2 40.6 43.2 2.6 4.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 7.3 6.7 7.0 0.1 47.5 47.5 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 2.3 1.3 4.1 -0.3 44.1 44.7 1.0 2.0 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 3.4 2.2 4.4 -0.6 37.7 40.0 1.9 2.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 2.7 1.4 2.3 -0.5 39.4 41.1 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.0 3.4 6.2 -0.7 36.8 38.2 3.1 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 0.1 -0.6 3.4 -0.1 43.1 44.9 -1.7 -0.4 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.2 4.6 -0.7 35.1 37.1 3.1 4.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.3 3.2 4.0 -0.2 41.0 43.0 2.5 3.7 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 3.9 2.7 4.2 -0.4 38.4 41.8 2.2 3.4 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.0 3.5 -0.5 38.8 40.6 1.7 2.0 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 3.4 1.6 2.9 -0.8 33.2 36.4 1.6 2.5 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 5.7 4.5 5.3 -0.2 41.1 43.1 3.6 5.4 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 4.9 3.7 5.6 -0.1 43.6 44.1 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 4.4 3.8 3.7 -0.4 41.0 42.0 3.1 3.9 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.3 3.9 6.2 -0.4 38.0 40.5 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 1.4 3.5 -0.3 40.6 42.2 1.2 2.6 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 5.0 4.4 6.8 0.1 44.2 46.0 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 0.1 -0.8 2.1 -0.1 42.1 43.1 -1.0 -0.4 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.7 3.3 6.2 -0.4 38.2 41.2 3.1 4.1 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.4 3.2 6.4 -0.3 37.6 41.1 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 4.9 4.6 6.8 0.2 47.9 48.3 2.3 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 4.2 3.4 5.2 -0.1 40.6 43.6 2.8 3.7 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 4.7 4.1 6.3 0.0 48.5 48.3 3.0 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.8 2.5 2.8 -0.9 35.5 37.2 2.5 3.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.3 3.4 6.2 -0.4 40.5 42.5 2.6 4.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 3.3 2.0 4.3 -0.4 39.9 41.8 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 3.1 2.4 2.9 -0.1 43.2 43.9 2.0 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 5.2 4.5 6.9 -0.2 43.1 43.9 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------