***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 36.8 34.3 47.9 100.7 55.5 53.0 28.7 32.7 45.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 42.1 45.2 43.2 101.6 60.2 52.5 27.0 38.1 49.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 49.3 47.6 47.4 97.4 57.4 50.8 31.6 44.4 55.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 50.2 51.1 50.4 101.2 59.8 53.7 38.0 45.6 54.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 51.2 49.7 49.7 101.3 63.5 54.4 30.4 48.1 50.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 45.0 39.2 46.4 96.8 57.5 51.7 34.0 36.8 47.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 40.0 38.7 43.2 103.6 60.1 53.5 24.9 33.7 42.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 69.5 83.5 54.2 107.3 64.2 56.3 48.3 64.0 84.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 45.2 43.8 51.1 100.6 63.2 54.2 28.8 39.2 44.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 47.0 54.3 54.9 103.6 63.2 55.4 34.3 39.3 55.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 40.2 48.4 49.1 102.1 61.2 54.6 28.1 33.1 54.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 47.4 48.5 49.1 106.1 63.1 55.8 33.8 40.7 51.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 55.2 63.1 51.7 102.9 60.2 55.2 33.7 47.9 67.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 63.5 66.6 56.8 100.0 56.7 52.7 49.5 57.4 77.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 39.9 35.3 49.3 99.5 56.4 52.8 28.9 32.8 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 43.8 46.5 47.3 99.0 59.1 53.4 30.1 40.9 48.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 43.8 37.9 41.3 100.3 51.9 50.9 23.2 36.4 52.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 53.8 52.5 56.8 99.9 58.7 54.0 45.8 48.1 53.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 46.0 44.6 44.3 99.7 59.4 51.5 31.7 40.6 57.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 65.5 60.2 66.2 104.8 59.2 56.2 54.0 59.2 67.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 45.2 46.3 49.1 100.1 60.1 53.4 29.2 40.9 50.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 44.9 42.4 44.3 101.4 55.3 50.9 32.1 39.5 53.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 50.9 50.5 46.8 97.4 58.0 50.5 32.1 45.8 58.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 57.7 52.0 53.2 99.0 58.9 52.5 34.4 50.5 55.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 41.6 44.8 52.3 104.5 62.0 55.5 23.9 36.8 52.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 49.7 50.8 49.5 102.8 58.1 54.3 31.7 45.6 58.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 39.7 36.4 49.8 102.4 58.6 54.1 24.4 34.5 44.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 43.8 39.6 47.3 99.3 57.7 52.8 28.5 37.8 41.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 73.7 72.9 59.4 98.8 55.6 52.8 61.7 70.1 78.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 39.8 38.6 44.7 100.0 61.5 52.1 29.1 34.8 41.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------