***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.0 11.0 8.7 80.0 60.0 44.4 5.7 9.1 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.2 10.8 8.5 94.5 64.0 46.6 2.5 6.3 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.2 8.8 79.9 58.1 44.2 5.5 9.0 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.1 22.0 9.6 84.4 60.0 48.2 3.7 15.0 26.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 16.2 18.5 9.1 79.2 56.6 45.7 4.7 12.8 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 21.4 22.0 10.6 89.8 63.0 49.0 5.5 17.5 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.8 10.9 8.3 93.5 64.4 46.7 2.8 5.7 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.5 29.1 10.4 93.5 62.4 49.6 5.3 15.9 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.2 12.3 9.5 78.0 55.0 44.3 6.0 11.0 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.9 20.1 10.2 83.8 57.8 46.4 5.9 11.8 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 19.6 20.6 9.3 86.1 60.3 48.0 5.9 15.6 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 25.1 27.4 9.6 93.9 62.9 49.6 2.2 20.4 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 7.1 25.5 10.7 89.8 60.4 47.6 7.4 15.6 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.3 17.0 10.0 77.9 51.6 45.0 7.0 15.1 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 13.9 21.3 10.2 87.0 65.4 50.0 1.9 8.2 21.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.7 20.5 9.9 88.2 60.9 48.1 3.9 16.0 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.4 11.5 8.4 95.1 64.9 47.1 2.4 7.8 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.8 17.0 10.4 79.7 52.8 44.4 5.8 13.4 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.7 12.1 8.7 92.1 60.7 46.6 4.6 7.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.2 26.7 13.9 95.4 60.2 48.7 5.9 17.5 30.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.5 13.2 9.0 76.8 56.2 43.3 4.3 11.8 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.5 11.4 9.0 97.2 60.7 47.2 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.2 8.9 84.9 57.2 46.2 3.5 8.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.6 13.4 9.4 74.9 52.7 42.9 4.2 11.9 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.3 12.2 9.4 79.5 54.9 45.0 3.3 10.6 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 19.3 24.2 11.5 106.4 62.8 50.5 10.1 14.6 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.4 12.9 8.9 80.3 57.9 45.2 4.4 7.5 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.5 19.2 9.8 88.0 64.6 49.4 2.4 9.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 12.5 29.3 11.4 83.5 53.7 45.5 7.1 27.4 39.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.0 8.7 90.0 62.3 46.3 2.8 6.5 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------