***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.4 15.2 16.0 143.4 74.2 61.0 2.9 4.6 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 17.0 22.8 15.9 160.3 80.1 65.3 3.0 4.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.5 15.0 130.4 70.3 57.9 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.0 11.6 15.0 118.8 64.3 53.7 2.3 7.4 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.1 14.6 110.9 62.0 51.6 1.8 5.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.8 12.5 85.7 57.7 48.5 0.7 4.7 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 16.0 23.0 16.7 169.7 80.4 65.5 2.9 7.7 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.6 15.2 111.5 60.8 52.1 5.6 12.0 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.7 15.3 111.1 59.6 51.2 0.3 6.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.7 12.2 15.4 107.4 59.2 51.0 1.0 7.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.1 13.6 105.5 59.9 50.7 0.1 5.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.6 10.0 13.8 111.3 60.5 52.0 0.5 5.1 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.0 13.7 101.7 57.2 49.8 0.5 5.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.0 15.5 17.1 119.6 65.8 56.5 4.3 7.0 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.4 8.8 15.7 123.8 66.5 54.4 0.7 2.9 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.9 12.7 99.8 55.8 49.4 0.4 3.9 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 18.3 23.9 16.2 162.9 78.2 64.3 1.8 5.9 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.1 16.4 109.3 60.3 51.7 2.0 6.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 17.9 23.1 15.2 148.1 77.3 62.9 2.1 5.2 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.4 10.6 19.4 111.5 60.6 53.2 3.0 5.4 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.5 10.8 14.9 119.5 65.4 53.9 1.8 5.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 21.3 31.0 16.5 154.3 78.2 63.6 2.1 4.3 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.7 13.0 14.5 130.9 69.1 58.7 2.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.9 10.5 16.0 118.3 65.1 54.8 1.3 4.5 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.1 10.3 16.9 141.5 73.9 59.5 1.1 4.4 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.2 15.3 114.4 61.4 53.5 0.2 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.4 12.2 16.9 149.7 75.1 61.9 2.4 5.3 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.3 13.5 110.0 61.4 52.4 0.5 3.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.8 17.3 108.3 61.1 52.1 4.0 9.9 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.0 20.7 16.0 155.1 77.5 64.2 2.3 5.3 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------