***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.5 10.4 67.9 54.8 44.2 0.8 8.4 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.1 4.9 9.8 70.6 52.6 43.4 0.7 3.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.7 10.4 67.1 54.8 43.8 1.2 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.5 11.1 73.8 57.9 47.4 1.8 4.1 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.4 11.3 78.6 59.8 48.7 2.3 5.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 3.9 6.2 10.0 83.5 60.4 48.6 0.0 2.2 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.7 9.9 73.0 53.6 44.0 0.3 3.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.0 14.9 11.9 83.8 60.2 48.9 2.4 9.6 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.7 10.5 73.0 56.8 45.4 2.2 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 11.3 11.6 78.2 59.4 47.7 1.6 6.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.5 10.5 11.3 80.0 62.9 47.8 0.8 5.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.7 11.0 82.5 62.0 49.7 1.1 6.0 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.0 10.0 74.4 55.1 47.6 0.6 4.7 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.3 14.1 12.4 75.2 51.8 46.4 2.5 13.6 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.8 2.9 9.8 64.9 58.9 45.2 0.7 2.5 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.0 10.0 75.0 58.3 47.1 0.1 5.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.0 3.6 9.4 72.0 51.4 43.7 0.2 2.8 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 13.7 11.5 72.4 56.3 46.0 3.4 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.8 10.1 69.4 51.4 43.2 1.3 4.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.1 14.6 81.2 57.6 47.1 0.8 9.4 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.4 10.0 69.6 56.2 45.4 2.0 7.7 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.5 10.2 74.4 51.3 44.5 0.2 2.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.5 10.6 69.2 48.6 44.4 1.9 5.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.2 10.9 69.7 52.9 44.7 1.7 8.5 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.4 11.8 74.7 57.3 48.3 0.2 4.9 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.6 11.2 84.2 62.6 51.2 0.3 3.8 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.6 11.0 69.6 54.3 45.1 0.2 8.4 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.9 9.9 71.8 57.7 47.2 0.4 2.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 16.5 12.6 73.3 54.0 45.6 3.7 13.8 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.4 10.1 69.2 52.8 43.4 0.8 4.1 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------