***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.4 12.6 12.8 125.8 72.5 58.4 1.9 5.6 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.6 6.9 8.9 92.6 61.3 51.8 0.9 4.2 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.3 10.6 13.2 124.8 72.6 58.7 1.7 8.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.4 18.2 14.7 136.4 73.4 61.3 1.5 7.9 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.1 15.4 14.7 147.0 76.4 61.9 3.4 6.2 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.5 10.9 13.2 140.9 70.7 60.9 1.9 4.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 5.7 6.5 8.3 88.0 62.3 52.2 1.5 4.8 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 11.5 19.5 16.8 144.0 74.6 61.1 2.0 9.2 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.1 11.8 15.8 151.4 76.9 62.5 2.0 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.9 18.2 17.8 152.1 77.6 62.7 3.5 5.1 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.5 13.7 14.9 144.8 75.3 60.2 2.7 6.8 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.2 10.6 14.8 142.2 72.5 60.3 2.1 3.7 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.0 10.4 17.4 151.1 73.7 62.8 2.4 4.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.4 17.7 17.3 131.9 74.6 60.6 2.9 7.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.8 11.1 13.7 136.0 75.2 61.4 1.6 4.2 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.4 12.3 14.7 140.0 72.1 59.6 1.2 3.3 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.0 6.9 7.3 78.1 57.5 49.2 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.2 18.6 18.4 144.1 79.0 61.4 2.2 5.6 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.4 7.7 10.3 101.5 63.2 53.1 1.3 4.2 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.2 15.8 18.4 133.8 72.7 60.1 1.6 7.0 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 10.5 11.7 15.1 146.6 75.2 61.3 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.0 5.6 8.6 85.5 58.3 48.8 1.6 4.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.0 14.6 12.7 115.2 69.0 56.0 1.5 4.9 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 8.6 17.3 16.9 140.7 78.2 61.0 3.7 6.4 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 9.8 8.8 14.3 135.8 72.8 60.4 1.2 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 6.4 7.7 11.6 107.8 68.5 57.5 1.8 3.5 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.7 9.8 12.9 124.8 70.1 58.4 0.7 3.8 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.0 12.1 14.1 135.4 74.4 60.9 2.2 5.6 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 21.1 18.1 135.0 75.0 59.8 5.8 9.1 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 5.1 6.4 9.9 97.9 63.6 53.4 0.9 4.3 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------