***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.1 11.9 12.1 -0.4 45.2 45.2 11.2 12.5 13.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.1 12.2 -0.4 45.5 45.0 10.7 11.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.3 12.6 -0.3 47.2 46.9 11.6 12.4 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.5 9.4 -0.4 46.8 45.7 5.4 6.7 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.3 10.8 -0.3 46.7 46.7 11.9 12.8 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.2 10.2 0.1 52.5 52.0 11.4 13.0 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.9 12.1 -0.4 42.6 44.0 10.4 11.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.5 10.3 0.1 52.7 51.3 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.5 12.9 11.6 -0.2 47.4 48.3 12.3 13.0 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.4 11.0 0.0 50.7 50.1 11.9 12.4 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.7 11.2 -0.2 47.2 48.4 12.1 12.9 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.7 10.8 0.0 50.3 50.0 11.7 12.7 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 11.7 12.7 10.9 -0.1 46.8 48.6 11.8 13.2 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.7 12.2 0.0 51.8 50.7 12.2 12.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.1 10.6 -0.3 42.8 45.4 10.8 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 12.4 13.2 10.9 -0.1 44.8 48.3 12.8 13.8 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.0 10.7 12.0 -0.3 44.3 45.4 10.3 10.9 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.1 10.9 0.2 54.0 52.0 10.8 11.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.6 12.5 -0.3 47.5 46.3 11.0 11.9 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.1 9.4 0.3 56.7 54.2 8.9 10.9 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.3 12.2 -0.3 45.2 46.9 11.9 12.6 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.4 12.1 -0.3 46.0 46.6 10.9 11.5 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.7 12.7 -0.1 48.8 48.4 11.2 11.8 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.3 12.1 0.0 51.6 50.4 12.1 13.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.4 10.8 -0.4 42.9 44.7 10.8 11.5 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 11.5 13.5 10.2 -0.1 48.7 48.6 11.4 13.5 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.8 11.7 -0.4 43.7 45.1 11.4 12.2 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.6 10.1 -0.3 44.5 46.5 11.0 11.9 12.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.1 10.5 0.3 56.7 53.7 8.3 9.5 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.2 12.3 -0.4 44.6 44.9 10.7 11.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------