***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.2 9.6 9.6 0.0 46.9 49.9 7.2 10.1 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.9 9.6 -0.1 44.6 48.8 7.0 9.1 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.9 10.0 0.0 46.2 50.0 7.0 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 1.5 4.2 7.0 -0.1 47.6 49.3 1.3 4.2 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.7 8.1 0.0 47.4 50.3 6.8 10.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.0 7.6 0.3 48.4 52.9 7.8 9.3 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.9 9.5 -0.2 45.7 48.5 6.7 9.4 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 0.1 1.6 7.6 0.1 46.1 50.9 0.8 1.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.8 8.8 0.0 46.0 50.7 7.3 10.5 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.5 8.2 0.1 45.4 51.0 6.8 10.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 7.8 10.1 8.2 0.0 48.8 50.8 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.7 9.5 8.0 0.1 46.2 50.8 7.1 10.0 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.6 9.3 7.8 0.2 45.7 52.0 8.4 9.5 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.8 9.3 9.2 0.0 44.2 49.8 7.2 10.6 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 6.9 8.5 7.7 -0.1 46.8 48.5 7.9 8.7 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.5 8.0 0.1 48.4 51.3 8.2 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.6 9.4 -0.2 44.6 48.8 6.9 8.7 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.9 8.1 8.3 0.2 45.5 51.7 6.5 8.8 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.1 9.8 -0.1 44.7 49.2 6.9 9.6 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.0 6.6 0.3 45.9 52.4 4.2 6.4 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.3 9.3 0.0 45.9 50.1 6.8 10.2 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.3 8.8 9.4 -0.2 44.2 49.0 7.0 9.4 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.5 9.0 10.0 -0.1 46.1 49.7 7.1 9.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.5 9.1 0.1 45.7 50.6 7.8 10.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.3 8.1 -0.1 45.0 50.0 6.4 9.1 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.2 7.6 0.2 45.1 52.5 7.9 9.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.3 9.2 0.0 46.1 50.4 7.5 10.0 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.3 9.2 7.4 -0.1 48.5 49.5 8.0 9.3 10.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 6.0 7.8 0.3 46.1 52.1 3.5 6.6 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.8 9.6 -0.1 45.7 48.9 6.6 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------