***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.0 12.0 1.0 60.4 60.6 9.9 12.5 13.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.8 11.8 0.8 60.5 59.4 9.0 11.0 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 12.8 13.8 12.3 1.0 60.7 60.4 10.2 12.4 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 7.3 6.4 9.7 1.3 63.0 62.8 3.8 5.6 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 13.9 13.4 10.8 1.3 60.4 62.0 10.1 12.7 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.2 12.8 10.6 1.8 63.5 64.7 9.3 11.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.3 12.1 11.7 0.7 60.4 59.2 9.3 10.9 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 6.1 5.6 10.2 1.4 61.2 61.4 3.4 4.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.0 11.4 1.3 59.9 61.6 10.5 13.5 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 13.5 13.2 10.9 1.4 61.3 61.4 9.9 12.3 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 14.4 13.6 10.9 1.4 62.6 62.4 10.4 13.5 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 14.1 13.6 10.6 1.3 62.1 61.9 9.3 12.5 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.1 10.5 1.4 61.6 62.0 10.0 12.3 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.3 11.6 1.1 62.5 59.8 11.3 12.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.7 10.3 1.2 65.3 63.0 9.5 10.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 14.9 13.7 10.8 1.5 62.9 62.7 10.8 13.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 10.7 11.0 11.6 0.7 59.9 58.8 9.1 10.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 12.6 11.9 10.8 1.3 61.9 60.4 8.2 11.6 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.5 12.0 0.8 60.6 59.8 10.1 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.4 8.9 1.2 60.5 59.7 7.5 9.7 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.5 11.9 1.1 60.1 60.9 10.1 13.2 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.1 11.5 0.6 59.8 58.6 9.5 11.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 13.2 12.4 12.3 1.0 60.8 60.4 10.0 11.7 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.6 11.6 1.2 63.4 60.4 10.8 13.5 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.2 10.6 1.1 60.0 61.5 9.3 12.0 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.5 10.2 1.3 61.0 62.7 10.5 12.1 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.4 11.5 1.0 60.6 61.0 10.3 12.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.2 10.2 1.4 64.5 63.5 8.7 11.0 12.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.0 10.2 1.3 61.1 60.1 5.5 9.1 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.6 12.1 11.9 0.8 60.7 59.8 9.5 11.1 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------