***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.2 12.5 -1.3 36.9 39.0 10.9 13.9 15.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 10.9 11.3 12.4 -1.4 35.3 37.8 10.9 13.7 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.8 12.9 -1.2 36.7 39.5 11.3 14.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.0 10.0 -0.9 43.3 42.5 6.2 8.6 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 11.4 13.2 11.2 -1.1 39.6 40.5 12.0 14.4 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 11.2 12.4 10.1 -1.2 34.1 41.3 11.5 14.5 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 10.8 11.2 12.2 -1.4 35.2 37.3 10.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.8 10.4 -0.9 37.8 42.6 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 11.6 13.1 12.0 -1.1 38.0 40.8 12.3 14.2 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 11.3 11.9 11.1 -1.0 37.8 42.1 11.6 13.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 11.9 12.6 11.5 -1.2 37.9 40.6 12.0 14.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 11.5 12.6 10.9 -1.0 37.3 41.4 11.3 14.3 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 11.9 11.5 11.1 -1.4 33.4 39.4 11.5 14.4 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.5 11.7 12.2 -1.0 40.7 41.3 11.0 13.3 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.5 11.3 -1.1 36.6 39.8 12.3 13.0 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 12.7 12.7 11.1 -1.2 34.3 40.0 12.7 15.5 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 10.7 10.7 12.0 -1.4 35.7 37.6 10.3 13.2 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.2 10.9 -0.8 38.9 43.6 10.7 12.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 10.8 11.4 12.6 -1.3 37.0 38.4 11.2 13.8 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.3 9.3 -0.8 39.3 43.9 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 11.5 13.0 12.6 -1.2 37.7 40.1 11.8 13.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.5 12.1 -1.3 37.6 37.9 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 10.6 12.0 12.8 -1.2 40.1 39.6 10.7 13.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.1 12.4 12.2 -1.0 39.4 41.8 11.4 14.1 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 10.7 12.6 11.3 -1.3 37.4 39.3 11.3 13.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 11.7 12.5 10.3 -1.2 33.1 40.4 12.5 14.4 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 11.8 12.8 11.9 -1.3 37.0 38.8 11.9 14.6 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 10.8 12.8 10.7 -1.0 39.8 42.1 12.1 13.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 10.1 10.4 -0.8 38.1 44.0 8.0 11.3 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 10.6 11.2 12.5 -1.3 36.0 38.1 11.0 13.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------