***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.4 13.7 14.4 -1.2 39.4 37.9 13.0 15.9 16.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.4 14.7 15.2 -0.7 47.0 44.4 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.5 15.9 15.4 -0.8 47.0 43.3 13.8 16.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 6.2 7.1 11.0 -1.6 31.9 33.3 7.2 8.1 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.6 14.7 13.2 -1.3 39.3 37.8 13.0 15.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.1 12.6 -0.5 44.5 45.7 13.2 14.6 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 15.2 14.0 14.9 -0.8 44.3 42.4 13.1 14.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.1 13.2 -0.2 49.7 48.3 6.4 7.1 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 16.4 15.6 14.3 -1.0 44.7 41.0 13.5 15.8 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.6 13.7 -0.5 48.0 45.7 12.9 15.9 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.3 14.1 -0.9 43.6 41.2 13.3 15.9 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.2 13.5 -0.4 47.8 45.9 12.8 15.2 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 16.7 15.3 14.2 -0.6 44.2 44.2 13.7 16.0 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.3 15.7 0.1 51.8 51.3 14.0 16.1 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 13.0 13.1 13.1 -1.4 30.6 32.9 13.4 15.0 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.3 15.2 13.6 -0.9 42.3 41.3 14.3 16.5 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 14.3 13.7 15.0 -0.4 48.8 46.7 12.8 13.9 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.5 13.7 -0.1 51.7 50.0 12.2 15.1 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.1 15.5 -0.5 48.3 45.8 13.3 15.4 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.3 12.9 0.6 55.0 55.1 11.2 12.1 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.6 15.2 14.9 -1.1 44.2 40.7 13.3 16.1 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 15.9 15.6 15.5 -0.1 51.1 49.3 13.5 15.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.0 15.8 -0.3 49.7 47.9 13.4 16.0 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.1 15.3 -0.2 50.5 48.7 13.9 16.0 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.0 12.9 13.3 -1.5 35.2 36.0 12.8 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.1 12.6 -0.8 43.0 41.9 14.1 15.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.3 13.8 14.0 -1.2 38.8 38.1 13.6 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 12.6 13.2 12.1 -1.4 32.1 33.7 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.2 13.7 0.4 53.3 53.4 9.8 10.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.5 14.4 15.1 -0.8 44.8 42.4 13.2 15.0 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------