***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.7 4.4 5.7 0.9 58.2 59.0 1.9 3.1 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.5 5.2 0.8 55.3 58.5 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.1 5.5 0.8 58.5 58.3 3.4 4.6 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.2 0.2 3.1 0.9 63.1 58.8 -2.0 -0.6 0.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.6 3.7 0.9 61.4 59.1 0.3 1.7 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -0.5 3.2 2.0 1.1 66.8 60.7 -0.4 1.6 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.8 5.3 0.9 58.9 58.6 1.8 2.4 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -0.5 2.3 1.2 66.4 61.2 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.0 4.1 1.0 60.3 59.6 1.5 2.5 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 2.6 3.5 2.9 1.1 63.3 60.3 1.3 1.8 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.9 3.2 1.0 64.7 60.0 0.9 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 1.8 3.0 2.8 1.2 67.6 61.2 0.1 1.2 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.2 65.6 61.0 0.9 1.7 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 3.5 3.7 3.8 0.9 61.3 59.6 2.4 3.2 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.5 2.8 4.0 0.9 63.1 58.8 1.4 2.2 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 3.8 4.2 2.8 1.0 65.0 60.0 2.1 3.1 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.2 3.1 5.1 0.8 56.2 58.0 1.6 2.7 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 1.2 1.3 2.4 1.1 60.9 60.5 -0.1 0.6 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.7 5.1 0.8 56.0 58.4 2.0 2.5 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -0.8 0.4 1.3 1.3 62.3 61.8 -3.0 -1.6 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.8 5.1 0.9 59.5 58.6 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.3 4.9 0.7 55.7 57.7 1.1 2.1 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.6 5.1 0.8 57.7 58.3 1.7 2.0 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.4 3.6 0.9 61.1 59.4 1.3 2.1 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.2 3.3 4.6 1.0 58.9 59.2 1.2 2.3 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 2.9 4.2 2.3 1.1 65.2 61.1 0.4 2.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 3.3 4.7 5.4 1.0 58.3 59.6 1.8 2.5 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -0.9 1.9 3.2 0.9 64.1 59.0 -0.4 0.7 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.1 61.0 60.9 -0.5 0.6 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.3 5.3 0.9 56.1 58.6 2.1 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------