***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 1.3 1.3 5.1 -1.9 27.0 31.0 2.7 5.1 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.7 1.2 4.8 -1.7 25.6 31.2 1.7 4.4 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.8 3.1 5.4 -1.6 27.5 32.6 4.2 6.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -2.1 -0.7 2.8 -1.4 28.3 34.5 -0.3 0.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 0.1 1.0 3.7 -1.5 29.1 34.1 1.3 3.8 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 0.0 -0.3 1.6 -1.3 28.6 34.2 0.7 2.0 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 1.0 1.7 4.7 -1.8 24.6 30.5 1.8 4.1 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -2.4 -1.4 2.1 -1.1 31.1 36.5 -1.4 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 1.4 1.5 3.9 -1.4 29.0 34.2 1.7 4.7 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 1.5 1.8 2.7 -1.2 30.1 35.8 2.3 3.9 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 0.3 1.1 3.3 -1.3 28.9 34.4 2.1 2.9 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 -0.2 0.2 2.6 -1.2 30.1 35.8 0.9 2.2 3.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 -0.3 -0.2 2.5 -1.4 27.8 34.5 1.0 1.4 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.0 2.5 3.7 -1.4 31.5 34.7 2.9 5.1 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 0.9 0.9 4.1 -1.5 25.0 31.1 2.3 4.6 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 1.6 1.2 2.7 -1.4 28.7 34.2 2.3 4.1 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 1.1 2.2 4.6 -1.7 26.6 31.5 2.6 4.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 0.0 0.7 2.3 -1.2 32.5 37.0 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 1.4 1.6 4.8 -1.7 26.3 31.9 2.1 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -2.2 -2.8 1.1 -1.1 31.0 37.5 -2.4 -0.5 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 1.0 1.3 4.9 -1.6 28.5 32.7 1.8 4.5 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 0.9 1.9 4.7 -1.6 29.9 32.4 2.1 3.2 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.1 4.9 -1.5 28.6 33.0 2.4 4.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 1.3 1.5 3.7 -1.3 30.9 35.0 1.7 3.9 5.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 1.6 1.5 4.3 -1.9 26.4 31.5 1.9 4.5 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 0.5 0.5 2.3 -1.4 28.5 34.4 1.1 2.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 0.8 1.1 4.7 -2.0 26.8 31.2 2.1 4.5 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 -0.2 -0.4 3.1 -1.4 28.2 33.8 0.5 2.8 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -0.1 0.2 1.7 -1.1 32.7 37.3 0.2 1.9 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 1.9 1.3 5.0 -1.8 25.3 31.1 2.1 4.8 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------