***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 5.1 4.7 8.6 0.5 50.8 53.7 3.1 4.6 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 5.1 5.2 8.3 0.7 55.0 56.1 3.1 4.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 6.8 6.4 8.8 0.6 54.3 55.9 5.3 6.2 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 2.6 2.6 5.9 0.5 54.0 54.8 0.0 2.3 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 4.3 4.3 7.2 0.5 57.7 56.5 2.9 3.9 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 5.1 4.9 5.2 1.1 67.9 66.8 1.5 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 4.7 4.7 8.3 0.6 52.2 55.3 2.9 4.2 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.1 1.4 5.5 1.0 70.1 65.3 -1.6 -0.5 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 5.1 6.6 7.4 0.9 64.6 61.8 3.7 4.5 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.6 6.2 0.9 67.9 63.8 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.0 7.0 0.8 64.7 62.1 3.0 4.3 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.8 6.1 0.8 66.8 62.1 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 5.4 4.9 6.0 0.7 64.2 61.3 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 5.6 6.7 7.4 0.9 64.7 62.8 3.8 5.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 5.1 5.7 7.8 1.0 66.5 64.5 2.8 4.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.4 6.3 0.8 65.0 61.7 4.1 5.1 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.7 5.3 8.1 0.7 56.7 56.9 2.8 4.2 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.4 5.9 1.0 64.1 63.6 2.0 3.1 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 5.0 4.7 8.3 0.7 55.8 57.2 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 2.2 2.1 4.7 1.0 69.5 65.5 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.1 8.3 0.6 58.3 56.9 2.8 4.7 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 4.1 4.9 8.2 0.7 58.2 57.7 2.5 3.6 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 5.2 5.0 8.4 0.8 58.8 60.2 3.0 4.8 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 4.4 4.9 7.4 0.9 62.6 61.8 3.4 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 5.6 5.2 8.0 0.4 49.8 52.7 3.9 5.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.0 6.2 5.8 0.8 67.4 62.1 2.4 4.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 5.8 5.7 8.3 0.5 52.6 54.2 3.4 5.5 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 3.8 4.5 6.5 0.7 59.6 58.8 1.6 3.4 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 4.8 4.7 5.3 1.0 68.2 64.8 1.4 2.9 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 5.1 4.5 8.5 0.6 53.3 55.1 3.1 4.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------