***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 37.2 45.5 50.8 116.9 64.6 56.8 26.7 33.1 46.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 41.8 44.1 46.0 114.6 61.4 53.6 25.5 37.1 48.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 47.9 55.9 50.5 117.0 65.3 56.1 29.6 42.4 56.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 59.9 67.9 65.6 136.1 76.4 66.3 32.8 42.8 60.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 57.9 61.2 63.3 135.7 76.8 67.3 31.6 46.5 49.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 41.9 54.9 60.4 128.2 70.6 64.8 31.5 36.1 47.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 38.5 37.2 47.3 118.7 63.2 55.5 23.1 32.9 38.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 81.4 87.2 70.8 134.6 75.2 67.5 43.2 65.3 81.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 53.1 54.5 62.1 132.8 74.0 65.5 26.1 39.5 44.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 60.0 67.4 71.0 137.1 76.2 68.1 34.9 40.4 54.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 53.3 63.7 68.4 144.9 79.9 71.2 28.1 33.5 51.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 61.1 59.4 63.1 133.7 74.8 67.1 30.8 40.3 50.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 70.4 80.2 71.0 143.2 78.6 71.3 33.7 46.5 67.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 44.1 81.7 63.8 118.8 68.2 56.8 46.4 59.4 78.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 55.9 59.8 67.5 142.4 76.0 66.6 26.8 32.8 45.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 53.7 60.5 65.5 140.2 78.2 69.5 29.6 38.4 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 25.3 43.3 45.1 111.5 60.9 51.6 22.6 36.0 50.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 52.8 56.8 67.9 125.4 68.4 62.2 38.6 47.3 54.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.4 48.6 45.7 111.2 61.1 51.9 28.9 39.7 57.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 65.9 75.7 78.6 120.9 66.1 60.8 46.8 59.8 75.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 52.3 55.3 57.6 128.5 71.6 63.2 23.7 40.3 52.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 28.2 47.3 45.2 105.4 58.4 48.3 32.4 37.7 53.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 32.9 54.8 47.6 109.3 61.5 51.0 27.3 45.0 62.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 56.4 58.1 61.2 124.1 68.6 60.1 34.4 49.8 56.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 49.4 54.5 60.7 126.6 70.6 62.5 23.2 29.4 51.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 50.2 57.1 58.2 117.8 64.8 59.8 28.6 43.4 57.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 39.8 45.4 54.2 119.5 65.9 58.4 22.5 35.5 45.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 52.3 59.9 65.9 142.6 77.9 67.7 30.2 35.0 41.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 75.2 77.0 70.5 121.4 65.1 60.1 63.1 69.1 77.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 39.1 41.2 47.2 115.7 62.5 54.1 24.2 33.9 44.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------