***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.6 10.9 10.7 87.7 54.7 43.6 6.0 9.9 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.5 9.8 10.5 90.8 58.0 43.5 2.8 8.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.3 9.9 10.1 85.2 55.0 42.3 7.3 8.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.1 19.1 11.1 85.9 57.9 44.3 3.7 15.0 21.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.6 14.7 10.9 87.5 57.6 45.0 5.0 12.3 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.0 14.4 10.4 81.8 53.5 43.7 5.7 11.8 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.6 10.3 10.7 94.1 58.0 44.4 4.0 6.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.3 20.6 11.5 82.3 55.4 43.4 5.6 18.0 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.2 12.5 11.2 87.7 57.9 44.5 4.7 11.4 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.0 13.8 11.7 84.8 56.9 43.5 6.2 10.4 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 6.3 15.8 10.4 83.2 55.5 42.6 5.9 14.6 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 7.5 18.4 10.2 80.6 55.2 43.8 2.8 17.4 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.7 19.1 9.8 73.8 51.6 40.7 7.4 18.5 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.8 17.6 12.2 83.8 53.5 42.5 5.9 15.6 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.5 11.0 80.8 58.2 42.5 3.6 7.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.6 19.4 10.1 80.6 55.0 43.0 6.1 13.0 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.4 11.3 10.6 88.8 57.0 43.8 2.6 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.8 16.2 11.8 81.2 52.8 41.9 5.4 14.5 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.7 12.1 10.4 88.9 56.3 43.0 4.0 8.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.7 24.6 14.9 83.5 55.0 43.0 7.6 21.0 28.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.5 11.9 10.3 84.3 55.2 42.6 4.1 10.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.1 11.6 10.8 84.8 55.2 43.3 3.6 9.4 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.8 10.3 10.4 87.2 55.5 42.4 3.6 9.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.4 10.8 81.1 52.3 41.1 3.7 8.6 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.7 13.1 11.6 87.7 55.5 43.8 3.3 11.6 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.1 14.9 10.0 74.9 51.1 41.5 8.4 14.8 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.7 11.1 11.4 89.7 56.2 44.3 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.0 15.2 10.5 83.1 57.9 43.7 3.7 8.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.3 25.3 12.7 81.4 53.9 42.6 9.6 22.0 30.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.3 11.4 10.7 92.1 58.4 43.9 3.8 7.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------