***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.5 8.2 77.6 54.5 42.8 2.8 6.7 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 11.9 7.8 84.4 56.9 45.0 2.2 6.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.0 8.1 78.0 54.0 42.6 2.6 8.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.9 12.0 9.6 76.4 55.0 40.1 1.8 8.9 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.4 8.8 70.2 50.8 39.0 1.8 6.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.2 5.8 8.8 68.4 49.4 40.5 1.0 6.0 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.8 7.7 83.3 56.2 45.5 1.1 7.9 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.8 11.4 8.9 64.3 45.3 35.2 3.9 13.3 23.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.1 8.1 9.2 72.0 49.5 39.4 1.1 8.3 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.0 5.1 9.2 66.3 44.8 35.8 1.6 7.8 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.3 6.4 7.8 63.6 47.5 35.0 0.7 6.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.2 6.6 8.3 66.5 50.0 37.2 1.2 6.6 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.1 6.5 7.0 54.7 44.7 31.7 0.6 11.5 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.1 10.5 10.7 81.7 51.9 40.9 4.7 10.1 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.6 7.8 9.6 77.4 57.4 41.6 0.7 6.2 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.2 6.2 8.1 66.0 50.9 37.7 1.5 6.0 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.1 8.1 89.8 59.7 45.9 1.5 5.3 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.1 6.6 10.3 71.0 46.6 37.5 2.1 7.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.2 10.5 8.1 85.5 56.9 44.9 1.5 6.9 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.2 6.7 11.2 63.6 44.3 35.4 4.0 10.2 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.2 8.4 72.6 49.4 40.4 2.5 6.4 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.6 8.8 91.5 58.9 45.3 1.7 5.6 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.7 8.9 86.9 55.7 44.3 2.1 8.0 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.3 7.2 9.6 75.8 49.4 39.0 2.0 7.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.8 9.2 76.1 54.0 41.8 1.2 4.8 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.4 4.8 8.1 62.4 48.2 37.1 0.2 6.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.9 9.0 80.0 56.2 43.5 1.7 5.7 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.2 4.8 9.1 74.0 55.5 40.0 0.5 2.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 4.2 9.3 11.1 71.9 46.6 37.4 4.2 11.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.9 7.9 82.0 56.0 45.1 2.5 6.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------