***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.1 9.0 85.8 54.6 46.9 0.9 8.2 11.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.1 10.0 10.6 108.3 63.5 49.1 0.4 4.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.5 8.5 81.2 53.6 44.2 0.6 5.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.1 7.3 59.2 50.5 40.4 1.3 4.9 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.5 4.1 6.8 58.8 49.1 39.4 0.4 4.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.5 6.6 57.8 49.1 40.5 0.1 2.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.1 9.9 11.2 117.5 65.3 52.2 0.2 4.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 3.4 6.4 6.4 52.7 45.8 35.5 1.3 8.6 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.0 6.3 57.9 48.1 39.3 0.0 5.4 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.1 5.4 6.1 50.6 44.6 35.1 0.6 7.6 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.5 1.9 5.9 49.2 42.6 33.9 0.3 6.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.5 4.4 6.2 55.1 46.7 38.1 0.4 5.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 1.1 0.8 4.6 38.7 38.9 27.7 0.1 3.8 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.7 12.1 10.4 81.6 53.6 41.9 3.8 10.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 0.8 2.0 6.0 50.6 51.7 38.4 0.2 2.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.3 1.2 6.8 60.7 48.3 39.8 0.0 3.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.4 8.7 10.9 112.6 65.9 52.2 0.2 2.7 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.0 6.9 57.3 45.3 37.7 2.9 8.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.4 10.3 102.9 61.7 47.9 0.6 4.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.4 3.9 8.1 52.6 44.6 33.7 1.0 7.2 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.3 7.4 69.8 51.8 42.7 0.3 7.5 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.2 10.2 10.7 102.6 61.8 49.0 0.2 1.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.3 10.4 99.4 59.4 47.3 1.9 5.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.6 8.3 7.6 65.5 47.3 38.4 1.7 9.1 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.8 4.6 9.2 77.9 53.4 44.0 0.6 3.9 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 1.2 2.6 6.9 55.8 46.3 35.4 0.3 3.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.2 9.9 89.4 57.6 47.6 0.4 6.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.0 2.2 6.1 52.4 49.2 38.2 0.4 2.3 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 5.9 12.5 8.0 59.1 45.1 36.2 3.3 15.5 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.0 10.1 100.9 58.7 48.3 0.8 4.3 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------