***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 11.7 17.2 22.9 224.4 87.2 78.9 2.0 4.8 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 9.3 13.3 17.1 179.0 82.4 70.5 0.9 3.1 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 13.3 21.2 23.7 229.9 87.9 77.7 2.0 5.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 18.1 32.9 37.7 355.5 96.9 87.2 1.7 9.4 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 15.8 29.8 36.7 365.4 96.9 90.5 1.7 6.3 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 13.0 21.9 34.5 346.3 93.9 89.7 0.8 3.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 8.8 11.8 17.7 183.3 82.5 73.0 1.2 3.0 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 19.2 42.1 44.0 347.5 95.1 90.0 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 13.4 29.6 35.3 345.8 95.9 88.6 2.5 6.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 17.8 38.9 44.1 366.3 96.7 90.6 2.1 4.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 15.0 35.1 44.3 426.8 97.8 92.2 2.0 4.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 13.7 30.5 38.5 356.3 95.8 90.2 1.4 3.0 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 15.8 44.2 49.6 426.3 98.3 94.1 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 19.4 35.0 30.5 229.3 89.5 78.9 2.7 7.5 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 10.9 30.1 41.0 426.0 96.4 86.8 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 16.5 29.6 40.5 383.9 96.4 91.2 1.0 3.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 9.1 13.0 15.4 158.6 77.8 66.0 0.7 3.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 18.3 27.3 38.9 301.8 93.4 87.5 2.1 6.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.3 18.0 17.0 170.3 81.8 68.8 1.4 4.1 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 15.8 37.9 44.3 286.9 91.5 87.5 1.4 7.1 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 14.6 29.0 31.5 304.3 93.3 85.4 3.2 5.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 6.2 15.6 14.9 147.2 74.0 61.9 1.2 3.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 14.1 20.9 17.9 164.4 80.8 68.3 1.6 5.3 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 18.2 31.6 33.2 282.9 92.3 84.1 2.6 7.0 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 8.1 20.9 30.7 284.2 91.4 85.2 1.0 4.2 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 19.8 33.1 33.3 307.1 92.0 88.6 1.3 3.5 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 11.8 15.3 24.0 231.3 87.1 80.3 0.8 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 11.8 20.8 40.2 417.3 96.9 88.5 1.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 22.9 35.6 38.7 282.1 92.0 86.5 5.2 9.5 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 10.8 13.5 18.5 193.9 84.6 73.0 0.7 4.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------