***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 13.4 14.1 13.6 0.8 62.1 60.5 11.5 13.0 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 12.5 12.9 13.6 0.7 62.9 60.6 11.0 12.1 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 13.2 14.2 14.0 0.8 63.5 60.9 12.0 12.7 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 8.3 8.6 11.2 1.3 73.0 66.4 5.7 6.9 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.5 14.0 12.1 0.8 61.2 59.5 12.2 13.1 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.9 10.9 0.6 57.0 57.1 11.8 13.1 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.7 13.5 0.6 61.0 59.3 10.9 11.9 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.1 11.1 0.5 56.5 57.2 4.7 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.4 12.9 0.8 59.4 60.2 12.5 13.2 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.4 12.9 11.9 0.6 57.4 58.0 12.1 12.8 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.8 12.2 0.6 59.0 58.0 12.2 13.5 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.2 11.6 0.6 57.2 58.1 12.1 13.4 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.0 11.5 0.3 51.0 53.2 12.3 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.7 13.3 0.7 58.7 58.9 12.4 13.0 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 12.8 13.1 12.4 1.4 76.1 68.7 11.1 12.0 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.6 15.0 11.8 0.6 57.9 57.1 13.0 14.1 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 11.8 12.3 13.3 0.6 60.9 59.4 10.4 11.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.6 11.8 0.6 56.2 57.3 11.2 12.0 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 12.8 13.7 13.9 0.9 64.8 61.9 11.0 12.4 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.0 9.6 0.2 50.4 52.8 9.2 10.9 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.5 14.1 13.5 0.7 59.8 59.3 12.1 12.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 12.6 13.1 13.4 0.6 61.6 59.5 11.0 12.1 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 12.9 14.0 14.2 1.0 67.3 63.5 11.3 12.3 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.2 13.2 0.8 59.2 59.2 12.6 13.4 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.7 12.3 0.8 64.8 60.3 11.1 12.1 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.9 11.0 0.5 56.3 57.1 12.0 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.0 14.1 13.0 0.7 61.7 59.4 11.9 12.5 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.8 11.7 1.3 72.5 66.0 11.3 12.4 13.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.0 11.0 0.4 53.0 54.8 8.5 9.8 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 12.4 13.2 13.7 0.8 63.1 60.8 11.1 12.1 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------