***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 8.3 10.7 10.8 0.8 57.2 55.8 8.6 10.3 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.1 10.2 10.8 0.9 57.7 55.4 6.8 9.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.5 11.3 11.2 1.0 58.4 56.4 7.8 10.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.6 8.6 1.3 61.3 58.8 2.8 5.3 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.2 9.3 1.0 57.9 56.9 8.6 10.3 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.6 10.4 8.4 0.9 55.6 56.1 9.1 10.0 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.3 9.9 10.6 0.8 56.2 55.0 6.3 9.7 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.0 8.7 1.0 56.9 57.1 1.9 2.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.6 10.1 1.0 57.2 56.6 8.9 10.8 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.9 9.4 1.0 56.8 56.6 8.6 10.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.9 9.4 1.0 57.5 57.2 9.2 11.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.7 9.1 1.0 57.3 57.5 8.5 10.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.4 11.5 8.7 0.9 55.2 56.2 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.1 10.9 10.4 0.9 56.3 55.4 8.2 10.6 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.9 9.2 1.4 64.9 60.1 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.7 9.1 1.0 57.2 57.0 9.4 11.3 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.7 9.5 10.5 0.7 58.2 54.7 6.7 9.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 10.0 9.4 0.9 55.7 55.9 7.7 9.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.6 11.2 11.0 1.0 58.9 55.9 7.3 10.1 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.8 7.4 7.3 0.7 53.1 55.6 5.5 7.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.4 10.5 0.9 58.2 56.2 8.2 10.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.2 10.6 10.6 0.8 59.8 55.3 7.3 9.7 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.8 11.0 11.4 1.0 58.9 56.6 7.2 9.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.7 11.3 10.4 0.9 56.8 56.1 8.7 10.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.6 9.3 0.9 58.1 56.5 7.3 9.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 8.3 10.6 8.6 1.0 57.3 57.8 9.1 9.8 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.4 11.2 10.2 0.8 56.7 55.4 8.3 10.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.0 8.9 1.3 62.4 59.0 8.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.7 8.7 0.8 54.3 55.3 4.6 6.4 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 7.4 10.4 10.8 0.9 56.6 55.5 6.8 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------