***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.3 13.4 2.1 71.1 68.7 11.1 11.9 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.8 12.8 13.4 2.0 73.1 68.8 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 14.3 14.6 13.9 2.3 73.7 69.5 10.8 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.0 11.2 2.5 72.9 71.4 4.9 6.0 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.9 13.7 12.0 2.3 70.0 68.6 10.5 12.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.0 11.1 2.1 63.1 65.2 10.1 11.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.8 13.3 1.9 71.9 68.0 10.1 11.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.8 11.4 2.3 68.1 67.6 3.5 5.0 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 14.6 14.5 12.8 2.3 70.4 68.6 10.8 13.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.6 14.1 12.1 2.4 69.0 67.8 9.9 12.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 14.4 14.1 12.1 2.3 67.9 67.9 10.7 12.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 14.4 14.2 11.8 2.2 67.7 67.9 10.0 12.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 14.4 13.8 11.4 2.0 65.2 65.1 10.5 12.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.8 15.1 13.1 2.3 70.3 67.3 10.8 12.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.5 11.8 2.5 74.4 72.4 9.5 11.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 14.7 14.5 11.8 2.2 66.8 67.0 11.3 13.0 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 12.0 12.0 13.1 1.8 71.1 67.5 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.8 12.1 2.4 68.3 66.8 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.9 13.7 2.2 73.7 69.4 10.7 11.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 11.8 11.7 10.0 2.1 67.1 65.7 7.3 9.6 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 14.1 13.9 13.2 2.2 70.4 68.5 10.4 13.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 13.0 12.6 13.1 1.9 70.6 68.0 9.7 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 13.7 14.1 14.0 2.3 74.1 69.7 10.6 11.4 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.1 14.9 13.1 2.4 71.2 68.0 11.2 13.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 12.6 12.9 11.9 2.1 70.1 68.7 9.9 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 14.1 13.8 11.3 2.2 70.4 68.9 10.8 11.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.4 12.8 2.0 70.5 67.8 11.0 12.2 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 12.4 12.6 11.5 2.5 72.2 71.0 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.3 11.4 2.2 66.7 65.6 5.7 8.9 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 12.7 13.1 13.5 2.1 73.3 69.1 10.3 11.3 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------