***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.9 19.4 16.9 3.3 83.1 77.0 11.8 14.5 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 16.2 17.2 16.8 3.1 80.2 75.6 12.2 13.8 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 17.2 18.4 17.5 3.6 82.8 77.3 12.2 14.3 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 11.8 13.9 14.5 4.1 88.3 80.2 6.7 9.1 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 17.6 19.1 15.7 3.6 83.2 77.7 12.5 14.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 17.2 18.5 14.4 3.6 80.0 76.3 12.5 14.2 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 16.0 16.8 16.6 3.0 78.6 74.9 11.5 13.6 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 9.5 10.5 14.6 3.4 79.1 75.4 5.9 7.5 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 17.2 18.4 16.5 3.6 82.2 77.5 12.7 14.8 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 17.1 18.6 15.6 3.6 79.9 76.0 11.6 14.2 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 17.5 19.5 16.0 3.6 82.5 77.1 12.5 14.8 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 17.0 18.8 15.1 3.4 80.5 76.6 12.3 14.0 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 17.4 18.6 15.3 3.1 77.6 74.1 12.9 14.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 17.5 19.2 16.8 3.5 79.1 75.2 10.9 13.6 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 15.2 17.3 15.5 3.7 89.0 79.8 12.5 14.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 18.0 19.5 15.4 3.5 80.5 76.6 13.5 15.1 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 15.3 16.1 16.3 2.9 77.5 74.2 11.1 12.9 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 16.0 17.4 15.3 3.5 78.3 74.4 10.8 13.0 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 16.6 18.1 17.2 3.4 82.0 76.6 11.9 13.9 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 14.4 15.1 13.1 2.9 74.3 71.0 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 16.8 18.5 17.1 3.5 82.0 77.2 12.5 14.3 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 16.5 17.4 16.3 2.8 78.3 73.8 11.0 13.4 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.9 18.7 17.7 3.7 83.8 78.0 11.6 13.2 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 17.7 19.2 16.9 3.7 79.9 75.9 12.2 14.2 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.8 18.1 15.8 3.4 83.9 77.2 12.3 13.8 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 17.1 18.1 14.4 3.2 79.3 75.5 13.2 14.8 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 16.6 17.8 16.3 3.2 81.5 76.1 12.4 14.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 16.7 18.6 15.1 4.0 88.4 79.5 12.4 14.1 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.7 14.4 14.5 3.2 75.3 72.5 7.5 11.6 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 16.1 17.1 17.0 3.2 81.6 76.1 11.8 13.9 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------