***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 12.4 9.2 13.3 -3.2 11.9 23.2 13.4 15.3 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 13.1 11.9 13.6 -3.0 15.5 24.4 13.6 15.1 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 13.2 10.9 13.5 -3.5 13.4 22.4 14.5 16.3 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 6.4 6.3 10.5 -2.5 21.0 30.3 7.1 8.5 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 13.1 11.2 11.4 -3.8 10.7 20.9 13.9 16.0 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 12.4 9.9 9.5 -4.3 8.4 18.9 13.2 15.0 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 12.8 11.6 13.4 -3.1 13.4 23.2 13.3 14.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 5.0 1.3 9.7 -4.4 8.0 19.0 5.9 7.4 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 13.3 10.7 12.4 -3.6 10.1 21.8 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 12.8 10.2 10.7 -4.4 9.4 19.5 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 12.8 9.9 11.5 -4.3 7.9 18.1 14.1 16.4 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 12.5 10.2 10.4 -4.2 7.2 18.8 13.5 15.3 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 12.8 8.5 10.7 -4.9 3.7 13.4 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 13.0 11.1 12.8 -3.7 15.2 22.8 14.5 15.8 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 13.3 12.8 13.1 -1.9 23.0 33.6 13.6 14.6 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 13.8 9.8 10.9 -4.3 6.7 17.1 14.1 16.7 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 12.9 12.3 13.3 -2.9 17.3 25.6 13.0 14.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 12.2 8.8 10.3 -4.4 9.2 20.1 13.6 15.2 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 13.2 12.1 13.8 -3.0 16.3 25.1 13.3 15.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 9.2 5.9 8.1 -5.0 5.8 16.7 10.9 12.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 13.2 10.0 13.1 -3.7 10.1 21.1 14.4 16.2 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 13.1 12.0 13.5 -2.9 16.5 25.6 13.5 15.8 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 13.1 12.6 13.9 -2.9 17.9 26.3 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 13.0 10.3 12.5 -3.9 12.1 21.5 15.1 16.1 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 12.4 10.3 12.1 -3.3 12.7 22.3 13.1 14.8 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 12.6 10.1 9.7 -4.2 6.3 18.3 14.1 15.2 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 12.6 9.6 12.8 -3.3 12.2 22.2 14.2 15.0 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 12.6 12.1 11.4 -2.6 19.2 29.7 13.8 14.6 16.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 8.6 5.8 9.6 -4.7 8.2 18.6 9.8 11.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 12.6 11.3 13.5 -3.1 14.2 23.6 13.4 14.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------