***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.4 6.4 0.5 57.9 57.0 2.9 3.5 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.5 3.4 6.0 0.5 57.3 57.3 2.3 2.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.6 6.4 0.5 58.5 57.6 4.4 5.0 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.5 1.2 3.9 0.8 62.0 61.1 -0.5 0.1 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.0 3.1 4.3 0.5 57.4 56.6 2.0 2.6 3.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.6 2.0 0.3 53.0 53.2 1.4 2.4 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.3 6.1 0.5 57.1 58.3 2.4 2.9 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -1.4 2.2 0.3 51.0 52.1 -2.2 -1.4 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.6 4.5 0.5 56.9 56.3 2.8 3.2 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.3 3.0 0.3 53.5 53.6 2.7 3.1 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 3.2 3.0 3.6 0.4 55.1 54.2 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.2 2.9 0.3 51.3 52.7 1.4 2.1 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.5 2.7 0.3 50.6 52.0 1.9 2.5 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.3 4.4 0.6 58.3 57.9 3.2 3.9 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 4.0 3.7 5.1 1.0 66.8 65.3 2.6 3.4 3.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.1 3.2 0.4 55.9 54.8 2.9 3.5 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.7 5.9 0.5 57.1 57.8 2.5 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.1 2.4 0.4 53.2 54.2 1.3 2.0 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.5 6.0 0.5 57.4 57.3 2.5 3.1 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -0.8 1.0 0.1 46.9 50.0 -1.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.2 5.6 0.5 57.4 56.6 2.6 3.1 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 3.0 3.2 5.8 0.4 56.6 57.2 2.0 2.5 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.3 5.9 0.5 57.3 57.9 2.4 3.1 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 3.2 3.1 4.1 0.5 56.8 56.9 2.4 2.8 3.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.8 5.4 0.5 57.3 56.6 2.9 3.6 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.8 2.4 0.1 48.9 50.5 2.3 2.9 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.6 6.0 0.5 58.0 57.2 3.0 3.4 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 2.0 2.6 4.1 0.8 63.6 62.2 1.1 1.7 2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.5 1.8 0.2 50.2 51.9 0.6 1.5 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.7 6.2 0.5 58.3 57.8 2.6 3.2 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------