***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.6 4.2 0.7 55.6 54.9 1.4 2.7 3.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 2.2 2.3 3.9 0.7 56.2 55.5 0.6 1.7 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.2 4.2 0.7 55.3 56.0 1.8 3.9 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.8 -0.7 1.5 0.8 55.8 55.4 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.8 53.5 55.3 0.6 1.2 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -0.4 1.7 -0.1 0.6 52.9 53.3 0.2 1.5 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 0.5 2.4 4.0 0.7 55.6 55.5 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -2.8 0.2 0.7 52.3 54.2 -4.4 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.5 2.3 0.7 55.4 55.5 1.1 2.0 3.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.7 53.7 54.8 0.7 1.4 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.7 54.3 54.9 0.6 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.7 53.4 54.0 -0.8 1.6 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 -0.2 1.8 0.3 0.5 52.1 52.2 0.4 1.5 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.9 2.3 0.9 58.8 56.5 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.4 2.5 0.8 57.8 56.3 1.2 1.7 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.8 0.8 0.7 54.4 53.9 1.1 2.6 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 0.5 2.2 3.9 0.8 56.8 55.4 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.7 53.7 54.4 -0.9 0.5 1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 2.2 1.9 3.9 0.7 56.3 55.7 0.9 1.6 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -1.4 -1.8 -1.2 0.5 49.4 52.9 -3.0 -1.8 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.1 3.4 0.7 55.0 55.1 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.0 1.9 3.8 0.7 57.0 55.5 0.1 1.4 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.8 3.8 0.7 56.5 56.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.5 1.9 0.8 57.2 55.8 0.3 1.4 2.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.7 2.8 0.6 53.8 54.2 0.8 2.3 3.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -0.4 1.5 -0.1 0.2 48.0 50.5 0.5 1.5 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 0.4 3.2 3.7 0.7 54.6 54.6 0.4 2.2 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 1.0 0.9 1.6 0.9 56.4 56.0 -0.3 0.5 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -2.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 52.5 53.9 -1.3 -0.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.3 4.0 0.7 55.7 55.6 0.9 2.0 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------