***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.8 6.2 1.5 64.8 62.8 2.4 3.2 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.9 5.8 1.4 64.4 63.2 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 6.3 6.1 6.2 1.5 64.9 64.7 3.9 5.0 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -0.2 0.9 3.6 1.5 65.8 64.0 -1.6 -0.6 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 4.3 3.5 3.9 1.4 63.5 62.9 0.8 2.3 3.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 3.6 3.6 1.8 1.1 60.5 59.5 0.3 1.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.8 5.9 1.5 65.4 63.3 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.2 -0.9 2.1 1.3 61.8 61.1 -3.3 -1.8 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 4.9 4.1 4.3 1.4 62.8 63.1 2.4 3.0 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 4.3 3.6 2.9 1.4 62.1 62.1 1.5 2.5 3.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 4.2 3.1 3.2 1.3 62.6 61.8 1.6 2.3 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.8 2.5 1.2 61.2 60.5 0.6 1.3 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.1 59.0 59.1 0.6 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 3.9 4.3 4.1 1.5 61.6 63.2 2.8 3.5 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 4.4 3.8 4.6 1.6 68.3 65.7 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.3 2.7 1.2 61.6 60.8 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.6 5.6 1.4 63.7 62.8 1.7 3.0 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.4 61.5 61.8 0.2 1.4 2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 3.5 4.2 5.8 1.4 64.4 63.4 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -1.1 -0.2 0.9 1.4 59.9 60.2 -2.8 -1.8 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 4.5 3.5 5.4 1.4 63.4 63.2 1.9 2.9 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.2 3.7 5.5 1.4 64.9 63.4 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 3.3 4.5 5.7 1.4 63.5 63.7 1.7 2.8 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 3.0 2.9 3.8 1.5 63.5 63.4 1.6 2.5 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 4.9 4.3 5.0 1.5 63.8 62.9 1.5 2.8 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.5 1.9 0.9 55.2 57.5 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 3.4 4.7 5.7 1.5 64.7 62.8 1.5 2.5 4.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 2.6 2.3 3.7 1.6 65.3 64.4 0.2 1.2 2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.4 61.1 61.4 -0.8 1.0 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.4 6.0 1.5 65.6 63.8 2.1 3.1 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------