***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.1 0.9 6.7 -2.1 19.5 24.4 3.4 5.0 6.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.0 0.8 6.3 -2.1 17.3 23.9 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 4.4 3.5 6.8 -2.0 17.8 24.6 5.5 6.9 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.7 -0.1 4.7 -1.3 29.8 34.9 0.2 2.6 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.0 0.5 5.3 -1.9 20.4 27.5 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.2 1.4 2.9 -1.5 28.5 31.7 2.1 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.1 1.0 6.4 -2.1 19.1 24.7 2.4 4.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -2.0 -2.9 2.8 -2.2 16.7 24.2 -1.6 0.0 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.0 0.9 5.5 -1.6 21.6 28.2 3.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.6 1.2 3.7 -2.0 17.5 25.7 3.0 5.0 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.5 1.6 4.9 -1.6 22.1 28.7 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 1.5 0.4 3.8 -2.0 20.9 26.0 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.1 2.1 4.1 -1.5 27.2 31.1 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 2.7 2.4 5.0 -1.8 20.5 25.5 4.2 5.3 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.3 7.0 -0.2 44.8 47.8 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.2 3.2 4.5 -1.4 27.7 32.0 4.3 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.3 1.0 6.0 -2.2 18.8 24.4 3.4 4.7 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.5 0.2 3.0 -2.2 17.6 25.3 2.2 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.2 1.1 6.4 -2.0 18.1 24.4 2.9 4.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 -1.7 -4.3 1.2 -2.8 11.2 20.3 -1.2 1.5 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.6 1.0 6.3 -1.8 19.8 26.4 2.9 5.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 1.5 0.5 6.1 -2.2 17.5 23.4 2.4 4.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 2.2 1.3 6.4 -1.8 18.8 25.0 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 2.2 1.0 4.9 -1.9 19.4 26.1 3.0 4.7 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.8 1.6 6.2 -2.0 18.6 24.9 4.2 5.5 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.5 2.1 3.5 -1.9 24.5 27.3 2.7 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.2 0.9 6.4 -2.1 20.5 24.5 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.4 1.5 5.3 -0.8 36.5 40.4 1.5 4.0 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 0.8 -0.2 2.1 -2.5 13.9 22.5 1.3 2.8 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.2 1.0 6.7 -2.1 17.8 24.3 3.2 5.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------