***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 54.8 60.2 70.9 144.3 77.0 71.4 22.4 31.6 49.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 56.3 59.1 63.5 138.5 75.7 69.8 26.5 34.0 49.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 59.1 65.8 69.1 141.9 76.3 70.7 26.7 44.3 64.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 48.0 67.3 74.1 133.0 72.6 63.6 31.1 42.8 65.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 59.9 64.8 73.5 139.0 75.6 66.5 31.5 46.6 51.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 39.2 58.6 70.0 138.7 78.0 65.1 29.3 35.3 47.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 56.5 58.7 63.6 140.3 74.5 69.7 22.5 31.9 38.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 81.0 92.3 81.8 144.8 79.2 69.6 40.6 61.3 79.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 57.2 55.0 72.4 136.5 72.8 66.1 25.7 37.8 42.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 60.8 70.0 79.7 142.0 77.2 68.6 33.1 39.8 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 52.5 62.8 74.0 141.4 78.0 66.9 28.2 35.0 48.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 58.8 72.1 74.4 143.5 78.8 68.5 30.8 39.3 49.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 67.1 82.1 75.5 141.4 78.5 67.1 33.7 45.5 66.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 85.1 96.5 82.6 139.5 78.5 71.3 43.3 59.1 71.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 40.2 46.5 68.1 125.3 68.3 59.6 26.8 33.3 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 52.2 59.3 71.4 138.7 76.6 65.5 27.5 38.4 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 56.9 66.0 61.0 135.5 72.1 67.9 22.7 35.1 53.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 68.0 79.3 84.2 146.3 79.9 72.3 36.6 47.8 55.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 58.9 66.2 64.6 136.9 76.1 69.7 26.6 39.8 61.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 79.2 91.6 99.2 144.8 80.0 71.9 41.1 57.9 78.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 56.2 59.6 71.5 139.5 74.2 68.1 23.2 41.6 55.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 55.4 58.3 64.0 133.9 72.6 68.0 32.3 39.0 53.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 63.6 70.9 67.9 136.2 76.5 69.9 27.0 45.0 64.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 73.8 84.1 77.9 143.4 77.9 71.5 34.7 48.8 59.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 57.2 64.1 79.2 144.7 74.9 70.6 22.1 31.7 52.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 57.6 65.9 77.0 143.4 77.2 70.2 27.1 41.6 57.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 55.3 64.3 74.5 144.8 76.4 71.4 21.6 34.9 49.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 40.1 43.6 66.9 127.4 69.4 60.2 24.3 34.8 39.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 92.8 107.7 89.9 147.3 81.8 73.4 59.1 68.9 79.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 52.5 57.8 65.4 140.3 76.1 70.5 22.4 33.2 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------