***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.8 14.9 118.6 67.8 58.4 3.6 9.0 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.2 19.1 14.1 116.4 68.8 56.4 2.6 7.9 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.4 20.4 14.8 119.7 69.3 59.0 6.4 9.1 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.5 21.8 15.8 118.0 68.1 58.1 4.3 9.1 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.2 17.4 14.8 112.1 64.0 55.7 5.4 10.4 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.8 19.9 14.6 112.0 66.6 53.2 3.2 12.1 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.1 14.0 13.8 116.5 68.0 56.8 3.3 5.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.2 29.8 16.7 116.6 69.5 56.8 11.2 15.1 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.0 15.2 111.7 65.3 56.2 5.7 10.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.7 21.9 16.1 112.3 66.8 56.0 6.8 9.8 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.2 20.7 14.6 111.8 66.6 55.9 8.1 11.7 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.7 27.9 15.2 116.0 69.3 56.6 3.6 12.9 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.0 21.7 15.2 111.8 64.3 54.6 5.9 10.4 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.0 22.5 17.7 115.7 67.7 57.4 10.6 15.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.5 19.4 15.5 115.0 66.5 57.7 3.2 7.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.2 21.0 14.1 110.4 64.9 55.0 4.7 9.5 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.4 13.6 14.1 118.4 66.8 55.6 2.7 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.4 22.6 17.1 115.5 66.2 56.8 7.0 12.5 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.1 18.9 14.2 115.1 68.4 56.6 3.8 8.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.4 26.0 21.8 117.9 67.0 56.6 7.6 18.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.7 17.0 15.2 118.3 68.3 58.5 3.0 9.9 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.3 14.1 14.7 116.9 67.3 55.7 2.7 9.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.1 20.1 14.7 113.2 68.4 56.8 4.4 11.3 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.0 18.6 16.2 117.0 67.4 57.8 5.1 11.8 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.1 14.8 15.9 114.8 65.2 57.6 3.1 8.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.8 15.9 16.4 116.0 66.0 56.0 10.6 12.6 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.3 14.9 15.1 114.3 66.0 57.1 4.8 7.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 12.3 17.3 14.3 112.8 66.1 56.6 3.1 8.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 26.5 29.9 18.4 116.1 66.7 57.3 10.7 21.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.5 15.2 14.1 115.7 68.5 57.2 3.6 8.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------