***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.0 13.7 15.9 130.0 70.2 59.6 5.2 7.3 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 18.1 20.8 15.8 137.7 73.5 61.4 2.8 10.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.3 15.3 14.9 118.3 66.8 57.4 3.4 7.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.8 15.3 14.6 104.0 63.8 55.1 1.8 10.6 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 9.5 10.1 13.6 101.1 62.5 53.0 2.6 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.1 13.6 11.5 91.7 62.7 51.4 1.1 7.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 13.5 15.8 15.8 143.5 74.1 62.4 3.1 8.9 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.5 16.9 13.3 93.4 57.8 50.9 3.9 15.4 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 8.4 11.8 14.3 102.7 62.3 53.4 1.9 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.3 13.8 95.3 58.8 51.0 2.0 11.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 9.0 10.8 12.4 95.2 59.3 51.7 0.7 6.9 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.0 9.9 12.2 94.9 60.2 52.4 1.7 6.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.7 12.5 95.4 60.1 52.1 1.5 10.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.7 17.2 17.0 110.3 62.4 54.4 4.7 10.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.1 12.2 14.6 100.2 66.2 55.0 2.3 6.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.0 11.3 12.1 96.5 61.4 53.0 1.5 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.8 18.7 15.8 147.4 75.1 63.9 2.0 6.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.6 14.5 96.8 60.3 50.2 2.9 7.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.6 22.6 15.4 128.8 70.7 59.4 1.5 9.2 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 13.3 16.7 90.8 58.1 48.8 5.9 8.6 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.4 11.5 14.5 110.6 63.8 55.6 3.0 7.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 17.5 20.1 16.4 139.8 73.0 62.8 1.8 10.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.3 18.9 15.2 119.2 67.0 57.0 2.1 9.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.8 15.1 104.8 62.9 53.6 2.0 8.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.7 11.8 16.3 122.4 67.3 58.1 1.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.5 12.1 13.7 99.7 60.9 54.3 1.7 8.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.9 12.7 16.4 131.6 70.1 59.7 2.2 5.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.4 11.9 12.8 94.6 64.0 53.4 0.9 4.5 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 17.7 15.2 96.1 59.2 50.5 5.4 9.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.9 14.1 15.7 132.0 71.6 60.3 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------