***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 12.5 14.9 20.6 174.8 80.8 71.9 1.4 6.6 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 12.5 15.7 18.2 164.8 79.1 70.9 1.0 3.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 13.7 16.5 20.0 172.7 80.8 71.8 0.8 5.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.6 14.9 21.1 155.9 76.5 66.9 2.3 4.8 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.0 14.8 19.5 151.3 77.1 66.0 0.5 4.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 7.7 10.7 21.3 173.3 78.5 66.9 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 10.8 13.4 18.7 169.8 78.6 71.5 0.5 3.8 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 12.2 15.6 21.8 160.0 76.9 65.4 1.4 6.7 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 10.8 14.1 19.2 156.1 78.3 66.4 0.7 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 11.6 14.4 20.1 151.5 76.3 64.3 0.6 6.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.9 12.7 20.4 155.9 78.0 66.1 0.3 5.5 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.2 15.3 21.4 167.0 78.8 66.5 0.7 5.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.4 11.7 20.8 161.1 75.9 63.9 0.2 4.7 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 20.7 28.3 22.7 162.6 80.0 67.8 3.0 10.5 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 8.5 11.2 21.3 159.8 76.8 65.2 0.5 2.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 7.0 9.7 20.5 161.8 77.3 66.0 0.1 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 12.0 14.3 17.3 157.3 77.4 68.8 0.9 3.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 13.6 16.7 22.1 160.3 78.9 66.6 2.5 7.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 16.6 20.0 18.4 162.4 79.2 70.2 1.1 4.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 16.6 22.3 26.9 159.0 77.2 66.4 1.0 5.1 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 11.2 13.6 19.8 163.2 80.0 69.4 0.8 7.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 13.1 17.2 17.4 148.3 75.5 67.1 0.7 3.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 14.7 18.5 19.3 163.7 78.4 69.7 1.9 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 17.6 23.2 21.4 165.0 80.6 68.1 1.7 9.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 12.9 16.4 22.1 164.4 79.9 70.6 2.2 4.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 11.1 15.8 23.6 172.7 79.4 68.4 0.4 2.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 11.9 14.6 21.7 171.5 80.7 71.9 0.6 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 7.9 10.3 19.8 155.1 76.1 64.8 0.4 2.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 23.3 28.6 24.8 166.2 79.6 67.3 3.3 12.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 12.9 17.3 19.2 171.7 80.7 71.8 1.0 3.9 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------