***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9.0 14.1 19.6 155.4 79.6 66.6 1.7 2.9 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 4.6 11.5 15.4 137.5 73.4 62.7 1.0 3.3 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 11.3 15.9 19.4 159.6 78.4 67.2 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 6.9 19.3 22.5 153.4 76.4 64.0 1.4 4.5 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 13.8 16.9 25.6 192.2 83.0 73.4 2.5 5.7 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.3 15.1 22.6 179.3 79.6 71.0 0.5 3.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 5.0 8.5 15.3 133.8 73.1 61.1 1.7 4.1 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 17.8 23.7 29.9 209.1 87.6 76.3 2.8 9.0 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 10.1 12.9 23.7 179.8 80.4 71.9 2.1 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 14.4 22.8 29.7 210.8 87.1 77.6 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 12.1 18.4 26.7 201.2 85.9 74.2 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.9 18.3 25.6 195.0 85.0 73.0 1.1 4.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 8.7 26.3 27.0 196.3 85.4 74.2 1.9 4.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.8 24.6 25.2 173.4 80.8 72.4 2.8 8.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.6 10.7 16.7 128.7 72.3 55.0 1.5 4.0 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 11.0 18.8 24.7 183.9 82.7 70.6 2.1 3.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.0 12.2 13.9 121.0 70.4 59.7 1.1 2.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 15.8 24.0 30.6 217.7 89.0 79.8 1.4 7.3 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 6.4 16.8 16.5 144.0 75.2 65.0 1.1 4.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 15.7 31.3 33.7 221.0 88.4 79.2 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 11.6 15.3 22.1 167.4 78.3 68.7 1.8 5.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 7.4 16.4 15.6 132.0 72.9 63.9 2.6 5.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 15.2 21.2 18.6 151.8 76.2 67.3 1.6 6.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 13.0 26.9 25.3 192.6 84.6 74.9 2.4 6.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 5.9 8.4 24.9 176.6 80.2 71.4 0.5 2.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 14.7 22.4 23.4 191.5 82.0 74.3 1.2 4.2 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 9.3 13.9 21.4 162.7 78.7 68.8 1.0 2.3 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 5.8 12.3 20.0 147.4 75.6 60.6 2.0 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 19.6 30.5 31.5 217.1 88.8 79.4 2.3 8.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 5.7 12.8 16.3 144.5 75.9 63.8 0.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------