***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 12.0 12.1 12.2 -0.9 35.7 37.8 12.0 13.2 14.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 11.3 11.6 12.2 -0.9 36.1 37.7 11.5 12.5 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.2 12.6 12.5 -0.9 35.4 37.7 12.4 13.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.0 6.1 9.5 -0.8 33.9 39.1 6.1 7.2 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 12.1 12.5 10.4 -1.2 30.6 35.4 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 11.6 12.0 9.3 -1.4 29.5 34.4 12.1 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.5 12.1 -0.9 34.7 37.4 11.4 12.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 4.0 4.3 9.1 -1.8 23.9 29.3 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 12.7 12.7 11.2 -1.1 31.6 36.2 12.7 13.9 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 12.1 12.0 10.0 -1.6 26.6 32.0 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 12.3 12.5 10.6 -1.3 29.0 34.6 12.8 13.8 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 12.1 12.0 9.8 -1.5 26.3 32.1 12.5 13.8 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 12.5 12.4 10.0 -1.5 25.5 32.3 12.7 14.2 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 12.2 12.3 11.3 -1.5 29.0 33.3 12.6 13.4 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.0 11.0 -0.4 41.5 43.5 11.5 12.1 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 12.8 13.3 10.2 -1.2 29.1 35.1 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 10.6 11.0 11.8 -1.0 33.5 36.7 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 11.3 11.3 9.6 -1.8 24.3 30.2 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.5 11.9 12.3 -0.9 35.9 37.7 11.6 12.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 8.3 8.1 7.4 -2.4 18.8 24.2 9.6 10.9 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 12.4 12.4 11.8 -1.1 32.7 35.8 12.4 13.4 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 11.3 11.3 11.8 -1.1 30.9 35.3 11.5 12.4 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 11.7 11.8 12.5 -1.0 35.5 37.6 11.7 12.8 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 12.7 12.8 11.3 -1.4 29.3 33.7 12.9 13.9 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 11.3 11.4 10.6 -1.2 31.0 34.8 11.4 12.5 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 11.8 11.8 9.3 -1.5 25.5 31.1 12.4 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 11.8 12.2 11.5 -1.1 33.0 35.8 12.2 13.0 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 11.5 11.9 10.2 -0.6 37.3 41.3 11.8 12.7 13.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 7.9 7.8 8.9 -2.1 21.8 27.3 9.1 10.1 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 11.3 11.8 12.2 -0.9 36.2 38.0 11.5 12.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------