***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.5 11.1 10.8 0.5 51.8 54.7 9.0 11.0 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.7 10.1 10.6 0.4 51.6 54.2 6.7 9.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.8 11.7 11.1 0.5 51.1 54.4 7.8 11.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.7 8.4 0.6 55.2 55.9 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.6 11.5 9.4 0.6 53.9 55.9 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.4 9.1 0.9 56.9 58.0 9.9 11.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.5 10.2 10.6 0.5 53.7 54.6 6.8 10.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.4 3.8 8.8 0.6 51.9 55.4 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.8 11.6 10.1 0.5 52.3 54.8 9.8 11.4 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.3 11.1 9.4 0.5 51.3 54.8 9.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.7 11.9 9.5 0.7 54.4 56.9 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.5 11.5 9.3 0.7 53.8 56.7 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.3 9.1 0.8 53.9 57.1 10.5 12.0 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.8 11.1 10.1 0.1 48.3 51.8 7.8 11.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 7.6 9.0 9.0 0.5 54.8 55.8 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 9.4 12.6 9.4 0.8 55.1 57.7 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.8 10.4 0.4 51.4 53.4 6.6 9.5 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.1 9.4 0.4 49.3 53.6 8.6 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.9 10.3 10.8 0.4 50.4 53.9 6.7 10.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.6 7.6 0.4 49.3 53.8 6.8 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.5 11.4 10.5 0.4 51.2 54.4 9.6 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.0 10.3 0.2 49.2 52.2 6.7 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.1 10.3 11.0 0.4 49.8 53.6 7.0 10.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.4 11.8 10.2 0.3 49.5 53.1 8.3 11.8 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 7.6 10.5 9.2 0.4 51.2 54.1 8.8 10.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.0 11.3 8.9 0.9 55.5 58.3 9.8 11.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.3 11.6 10.2 0.4 52.2 54.6 8.9 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 8.2 9.4 8.9 0.7 56.6 56.7 8.7 9.3 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.2 8.8 0.3 49.1 53.3 6.5 7.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 7.7 10.2 10.7 0.5 52.2 54.5 6.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------