***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.6 12.6 0.7 58.4 55.4 11.3 12.4 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.8 12.5 0.6 56.1 54.8 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.9 13.0 0.8 60.2 55.8 11.1 12.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.6 10.2 0.8 58.0 55.7 4.7 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.9 11.0 0.7 58.2 54.4 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.8 10.6 1.0 58.4 56.5 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.9 12.4 0.6 55.8 54.5 10.2 11.7 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.0 10.1 0.4 53.7 52.4 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.8 11.6 0.6 57.4 53.6 11.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.7 13.1 10.9 0.5 55.5 53.0 10.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.7 13.2 11.1 0.7 57.6 54.7 11.0 12.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.9 10.8 0.6 55.0 54.0 10.4 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 10.3 12.6 10.6 0.7 53.9 54.1 10.6 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.7 11.8 0.4 53.6 52.3 11.3 12.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.8 10.8 1.0 58.2 56.8 10.5 11.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 11.1 14.0 11.0 0.9 58.4 55.6 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.2 12.1 0.5 53.5 53.4 10.2 10.9 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.1 11.3 10.9 0.4 54.1 52.5 9.5 11.2 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.0 12.7 0.7 56.6 55.1 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.6 8.7 0.0 48.6 49.4 7.9 9.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 10.5 13.3 12.2 0.6 57.6 54.2 11.0 12.8 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.4 12.0 0.3 51.5 52.3 10.6 11.4 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 9.9 12.2 12.9 0.7 57.4 55.0 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.6 13.1 11.9 0.6 56.6 53.7 12.0 13.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.1 11.0 0.6 56.6 53.8 10.2 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.1 10.4 0.7 54.5 55.1 10.9 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.1 12.0 0.7 58.2 54.8 10.6 12.5 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.9 10.6 1.0 59.2 56.8 10.3 11.8 12.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.6 10.1 0.2 51.5 51.0 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.5 12.6 0.7 57.6 55.3 10.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------