***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 11.9 12.7 12.7 -1.2 34.5 38.8 12.5 14.8 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 11.5 13.0 12.8 -1.1 37.3 39.2 12.7 13.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.0 12.8 13.1 -1.1 37.9 40.0 12.2 14.9 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.4 8.1 10.1 -0.9 39.9 41.8 6.7 9.4 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 12.0 13.2 11.1 -1.4 35.3 38.4 12.8 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 11.6 13.3 9.7 -1.7 33.8 38.4 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 11.0 12.9 12.7 -1.2 35.9 38.6 12.5 13.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 4.4 5.9 9.3 -2.3 26.2 32.5 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 12.2 12.6 11.9 -1.3 35.3 38.8 12.4 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 11.7 11.8 10.4 -1.9 30.0 35.5 12.1 14.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 12.1 12.5 11.2 -1.6 32.8 37.1 12.6 15.2 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 11.4 12.5 10.2 -2.0 28.7 34.6 12.7 14.7 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 12.0 12.4 10.5 -2.0 28.0 35.2 13.2 15.0 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 12.1 10.8 11.9 -1.7 30.1 36.3 10.9 15.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 12.3 13.7 11.9 -0.4 43.3 45.1 12.9 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 12.8 13.8 10.7 -1.6 33.1 37.9 13.8 15.6 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.9 12.5 12.5 -1.2 35.0 38.3 12.1 13.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 11.0 11.1 9.9 -2.2 28.0 33.8 11.3 13.8 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.5 13.0 -1.1 37.9 39.5 12.3 14.1 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 8.6 7.6 7.5 -3.0 22.8 28.6 10.4 12.2 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.4 12.5 -1.3 36.2 38.7 12.4 15.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 11.2 12.3 12.5 -1.3 33.6 37.6 12.2 13.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.6 13.1 -1.1 37.6 39.9 11.5 14.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 12.1 12.1 11.9 -1.6 31.7 37.1 12.1 14.9 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 11.1 13.0 11.3 -1.5 34.0 37.4 12.9 13.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 12.1 13.2 9.5 -2.0 27.6 34.7 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 11.9 12.8 12.1 -1.4 33.0 37.4 12.8 14.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 12.5 13.5 10.9 -0.7 41.7 43.8 12.3 14.8 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 7.9 7.0 9.0 -2.6 25.3 31.3 8.7 11.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 11.6 12.6 12.9 -1.1 37.0 39.3 12.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------