***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.4 5.4 -0.5 39.1 42.9 3.1 3.7 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 3.9 2.7 4.9 -0.6 37.3 40.4 2.5 3.3 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.9 5.3 -0.5 39.0 41.6 4.7 5.2 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -0.5 -0.3 2.6 -0.6 36.6 41.1 -0.4 0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.2 2.3 3.2 -0.6 36.3 40.5 2.1 2.7 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.5 1.7 0.9 -0.8 32.5 36.5 1.7 2.4 2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.8 2.8 5.0 -0.6 37.5 41.3 2.7 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -2.6 -2.1 1.1 -0.9 30.4 35.8 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.0 3.3 3.6 -0.5 39.7 42.5 3.3 3.4 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.7 2.9 1.9 -0.8 33.2 38.1 2.9 3.4 4.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.5 2.7 -0.6 37.8 40.9 2.3 3.0 4.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 1.4 1.6 1.8 -0.8 32.5 37.4 1.6 2.3 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.1 1.8 -0.7 34.0 39.1 2.1 2.5 3.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.5 3.3 3.4 -0.6 36.3 40.0 3.3 4.1 5.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 3.3 4.1 -0.1 42.2 47.5 2.6 3.5 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.9 3.3 2.1 -0.7 35.4 39.8 3.2 3.7 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.0 4.7 -0.7 36.2 39.2 2.9 3.3 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.4 1.7 1.3 -0.9 31.3 36.7 1.7 2.1 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.0 4.9 -0.6 37.5 40.8 2.8 3.3 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 -1.7 -1.6 -0.2 -1.2 26.1 32.9 -1.0 -0.4 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 3.7 2.8 4.7 -0.4 41.1 43.6 2.8 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.3 2.4 4.8 -0.6 37.8 40.1 2.2 2.9 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.0 4.9 -0.5 38.2 40.9 2.8 3.3 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.7 2.7 3.1 -0.6 37.0 40.0 2.6 3.2 3.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.1 3.3 4.3 -0.6 37.5 41.4 3.2 3.6 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.1 2.3 1.3 -1.0 29.9 35.1 2.5 3.0 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.2 4.9 -0.5 39.0 42.5 3.1 3.4 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.1 1.4 2.8 -0.4 37.8 42.9 1.4 1.9 2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 0.4 0.6 0.7 -1.0 28.4 34.5 0.8 1.6 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.0 5.1 -0.6 37.9 41.1 3.0 3.6 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------