***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 4.5 3.7 4.5 0.7 56.9 57.6 1.3 2.6 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.9 3.9 0.4 52.8 55.4 0.5 1.8 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 5.6 4.3 4.5 0.7 56.0 58.3 2.4 4.1 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.3 1.7 0.6 54.1 57.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.1 2.3 0.8 54.5 58.6 0.0 1.8 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.8 52.3 60.3 0.7 1.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 0.4 1.9 4.0 0.4 53.0 55.5 0.6 1.2 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -1.3 -2.2 0.8 0.8 53.3 60.4 -3.6 -2.3 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.5 2.8 0.8 55.2 59.0 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 3.4 2.2 1.4 0.8 54.0 59.9 0.1 2.0 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 3.1 1.9 1.8 0.8 53.0 59.4 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 2.2 1.5 1.2 0.8 52.3 59.7 0.2 1.4 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.8 53.0 59.2 0.1 1.7 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 4.4 2.9 2.5 0.7 54.7 58.0 1.6 2.4 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.2 2.6 0.4 53.1 56.5 1.2 2.2 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.7 51.3 58.6 1.5 2.5 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.1 3.7 0.2 50.7 53.4 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 1.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 55.4 59.7 -0.6 0.9 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.8 4.0 0.5 53.3 56.4 0.7 1.6 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 -0.5 -1.7 -0.2 0.9 54.9 60.8 -2.5 -1.9 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 3.9 2.2 3.8 0.8 56.0 58.7 0.5 1.9 3.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.6 3.5 0.2 50.0 53.9 0.3 1.6 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 2.3 1.9 4.0 0.6 54.6 57.7 0.8 1.8 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 3.2 1.9 2.2 0.7 55.8 58.7 0.7 1.8 2.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 3.7 2.4 3.3 0.7 54.8 57.8 1.2 2.2 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 2.7 2.1 0.9 0.8 55.3 59.7 0.9 1.9 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 4.6 2.8 4.1 0.7 56.4 57.5 0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 1.4 1.1 1.8 0.5 52.0 56.5 -0.3 1.0 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.9 55.6 60.1 -0.9 -0.1 1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.2 4.2 0.6 54.4 56.6 0.9 2.0 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------